The GDX/HUI/XAU Countertrend Wave B Upcycle That Began On 8-11-08 Might Have Already Peaked
The GDX/HUI/XAU countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 might have already peaked last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. The upcycle since Friday 8-15-08 might be Wave B of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the Wave C (since 7-15-08) crash of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March will bottom.
The bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator, at -0.87% versus the XAU today/on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19, -0.21% on 8-18, and, the modestly bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.34% versus SPX today/on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19, used in concert with the sector lead indicator NEM, jive reasonably well with that scenario, as does the intraday chart analysis in the next paragraph.
The upcycle since Friday 8-15-08 peaked early today in rollover mode (note that the peaks rolled over/flattened out every day, and, my Elliott Wave count yesterday missed the fact that a Wave 5 of Wave 5 type move was likely to occur early today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, then, a Wave A type move occurred early today, followed by a countertrend Wave B upcycle, that appears to have peaked late today. So, it looks like GDX (Gold Miners ETF) will try to fill it's downside gap at 34.46 early tomorrow. If it gets filled then 32.20 is the next downside gap to watch. I shorted GDX at 35.7501 today.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20 and 34.46 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU today 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GDX created an upside gap at 35.87 on 8-15, NEM did so at 42.89, GLD did so at 79.35, HUI did so at 327.350, and, the XAU did so at 142.62. GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 might have bottomed early today 8-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX ultra long via SSO tomorrow.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading SPX ultra long via SSO on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11 has bottomed.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -4.14% today 8-20 versus SPX rising a significant +0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.52% rise in complacency (-4.14% + +0.62% = -3.52% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Thursday 8-21.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was a slightly bearish -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator, at -0.87% versus the XAU today/on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19, -0.21% on 8-18, and, the modestly bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.34% versus SPX today/on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19, used in concert with the sector lead indicator NEM, jive reasonably well with that scenario, as does the intraday chart analysis in the next paragraph.
The upcycle since Friday 8-15-08 peaked early today in rollover mode (note that the peaks rolled over/flattened out every day, and, my Elliott Wave count yesterday missed the fact that a Wave 5 of Wave 5 type move was likely to occur early today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, then, a Wave A type move occurred early today, followed by a countertrend Wave B upcycle, that appears to have peaked late today. So, it looks like GDX (Gold Miners ETF) will try to fill it's downside gap at 34.46 early tomorrow. If it gets filled then 32.20 is the next downside gap to watch. I shorted GDX at 35.7501 today.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20 and 34.46 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU today 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GDX created an upside gap at 35.87 on 8-15, NEM did so at 42.89, GLD did so at 79.35, HUI did so at 327.350, and, the XAU did so at 142.62. GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 might have bottomed early today 8-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX ultra long via SSO tomorrow.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading SPX ultra long via SSO on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11 has bottomed.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -4.14% today 8-20 versus SPX rising a significant +0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.52% rise in complacency (-4.14% + +0.62% = -3.52% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Thursday 8-21.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was a slightly bearish -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
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