Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Is In Wave 5 Of The Monthly Upcycle Since 8-11-08
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in the third/Wave 5 of the Monthly Upcycle since 8-11-08 (Likely Wave 2 Major Intermediate Term cycle low at 40.78), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, looks like it'll try to fill it's upside gap at 46.12 early tomorrow.
NEM made a large likely bullish breakaway gap at today 8-27's open (now a downside gap at 44.20), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The lead indicators were only modestly bearish today, at -0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27 for sector NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27 for broad market WMT Lead Indicator, that's used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator.
The cycles for reliable lead indicator NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are vastly different, because, NEM obviously leads. NEM is in a Cyclical Bull Market since the mid 2007 cycle low at 37.84. NEM's bear market from 1-31-06 until mid 2007 correctly portended the current GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08. NEM is in a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle since 8-11-08 versus GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle (Wave C crash began 7-15-08) since 3-17-08.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD will probably/might try to fill Friday 8-22's upside gaps early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note how little time they're spending trending up the past four sessions (bearish ugly action/intraday chart). A brief spike occurred early on then down they went, which jives with the very bearish cycle picture now (Wave C (crash began 7-15-08) of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since 3-17-08).
If the upside gaps get filled, which would mean that the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 (Wave B of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08) didn't peak on 8-21-08, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 would end up having an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, it wouldn't be a big surprise.
Since bottoming right after yesterday 8-26's open GDX has done an up down up down and is in/trying to do Wave 5 up, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (-0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27, +0.78% on 8-26, -0.07% on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (-0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27, +0.40% on 8-26, +0.46% on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is modestly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I bought DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN), at 33.17 on 8-26. I'm already short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX/RUT ultra long after likely early weakness (wait for NDX/RUT's short term Wave 4 downcycle to bottom).
On 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21.
8-21's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21, and, the relatively flat action for most of 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.25% versus the XAU today/on 8-27, was a bullish +0.78% on 8-26, was -0.07% on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was -0.47% on 8-19, was -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 37.02 on 8-27, HUI did so at 340.48, the XAU did so at 147.49, NEM did so at 44.20. GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, GLD did so at 77.63. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably remains in effect (RUT might have bottomed), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX or RUT are better longs) ultra long via SSO on Thursday, when I'm convinced the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 has bottomed.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX or RUT ultra long via QLD or UWM on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle should/might bottom. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 (filled 8-26) and SPX's at 1249.01.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was a modestly bullish +0.40% on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 (filled 8-25) on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.12% today 8-27 versus SPX rising a significant +0.80%, which is a sharp +2.32% rise in complacency (-3.12% + +0.80% = -2.32% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Thursday 8-28, followed by strength, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was +0.40% on 8-26, was +0.46% on 8-25, was +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, +0.36% on 8-6, +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
NEM made a large likely bullish breakaway gap at today 8-27's open (now a downside gap at 44.20), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The lead indicators were only modestly bearish today, at -0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27 for sector NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27 for broad market WMT Lead Indicator, that's used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator.
The cycles for reliable lead indicator NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are vastly different, because, NEM obviously leads. NEM is in a Cyclical Bull Market since the mid 2007 cycle low at 37.84. NEM's bear market from 1-31-06 until mid 2007 correctly portended the current GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08. NEM is in a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle since 8-11-08 versus GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle (Wave C crash began 7-15-08) since 3-17-08.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD will probably/might try to fill Friday 8-22's upside gaps early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note how little time they're spending trending up the past four sessions (bearish ugly action/intraday chart). A brief spike occurred early on then down they went, which jives with the very bearish cycle picture now (Wave C (crash began 7-15-08) of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since 3-17-08).
If the upside gaps get filled, which would mean that the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 (Wave B of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08) didn't peak on 8-21-08, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 would end up having an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, it wouldn't be a big surprise.
Since bottoming right after yesterday 8-26's open GDX has done an up down up down and is in/trying to do Wave 5 up, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (-0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27, +0.78% on 8-26, -0.07% on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (-0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27, +0.40% on 8-26, +0.46% on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is modestly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I bought DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN), at 33.17 on 8-26. I'm already short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX/RUT ultra long after likely early weakness (wait for NDX/RUT's short term Wave 4 downcycle to bottom).
On 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21.
8-21's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21, and, the relatively flat action for most of 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.25% versus the XAU today/on 8-27, was a bullish +0.78% on 8-26, was -0.07% on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was -0.47% on 8-19, was -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 37.02 on 8-27, HUI did so at 340.48, the XAU did so at 147.49, NEM did so at 44.20. GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, GLD did so at 77.63. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably remains in effect (RUT might have bottomed), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX or RUT are better longs) ultra long via SSO on Thursday, when I'm convinced the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 has bottomed.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX or RUT ultra long via QLD or UWM on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle should/might bottom. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 (filled 8-26) and SPX's at 1249.01.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was a modestly bullish +0.40% on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 (filled 8-25) on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.12% today 8-27 versus SPX rising a significant +0.80%, which is a sharp +2.32% rise in complacency (-3.12% + +0.80% = -2.32% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Thursday 8-28, followed by strength, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was +0.40% on 8-26, was +0.46% on 8-25, was +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, +0.36% on 8-6, +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:23 PM
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