GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM Will Probably Try To Fill 8-21's Downside Gaps On Monday
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) will probably try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gaps early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
Reliable lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) completed a Wave A down type move early today that began yesterday (had an Elliott Wave down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, then, NEM did a brief Wave B spike and filled today's upside gap at 44.89, and, did a Wave A of Wave C type move most of the rest of the session (the bottom late today, only slightly below the Wave A cycle low early today, is a sign that it's not the final Wave C cycle low. Also, the mid session Wave B type bounce was very brief/anemic, it was very likely Wave B of Wave A of Wave C), ending the session in Wave B of a very short term Wave C downcycle that began early today after 44.89 got filled.
So, after maybe some brief Wave B type strength early on Monday NEM should enter Wave C of the very short term Wave C downcycle (began early today), in which NEM should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gap at 43.25, and, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gaps (GDX at 36.18, HUI at 330.47, the XAU at 145.35, GLD at 80.06). NEM has a respectably large bearish spike on today 8-22's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
So, on Monday one might day trade GDX short, then look to cover if 36.18 gets filled or clearly doesn't. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX ultra long.
After a brief feeble attempt at filling today's upside gaps (38.30, 353.14, 82.30, 153.77, NEM did fill 44.89) GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD experienced severe weakness despite a very bullish sector NEM Lead Indicator today (+1.87% versus the XAU on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, a bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator today (+0.48% versus the S & P 500 on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is obviously a very bearish omen, because, it indicates/jives with a very strong downcycle being in effect.
Yesterday 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.
Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12 (filled). Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14 (filled), and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably bottomed early on 8-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX) ultra long via SSO on Monday.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX ultra long via QLD on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle has bottomed. NDX created a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1906.74 at today 8-22's open.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -5.10% today 8-22 versus SPX rising a significant +1.13%, which is a very sharp +3.97% rise in complacency (-5.10% + +1.13% = -3.97% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 8-25.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, was -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Reliable lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) completed a Wave A down type move early today that began yesterday (had an Elliott Wave down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, then, NEM did a brief Wave B spike and filled today's upside gap at 44.89, and, did a Wave A of Wave C type move most of the rest of the session (the bottom late today, only slightly below the Wave A cycle low early today, is a sign that it's not the final Wave C cycle low. Also, the mid session Wave B type bounce was very brief/anemic, it was very likely Wave B of Wave A of Wave C), ending the session in Wave B of a very short term Wave C downcycle that began early today after 44.89 got filled.
So, after maybe some brief Wave B type strength early on Monday NEM should enter Wave C of the very short term Wave C downcycle (began early today), in which NEM should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gap at 43.25, and, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gaps (GDX at 36.18, HUI at 330.47, the XAU at 145.35, GLD at 80.06). NEM has a respectably large bearish spike on today 8-22's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
So, on Monday one might day trade GDX short, then look to cover if 36.18 gets filled or clearly doesn't. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX ultra long.
After a brief feeble attempt at filling today's upside gaps (38.30, 353.14, 82.30, 153.77, NEM did fill 44.89) GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD experienced severe weakness despite a very bullish sector NEM Lead Indicator today (+1.87% versus the XAU on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, a bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator today (+0.48% versus the S & P 500 on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is obviously a very bearish omen, because, it indicates/jives with a very strong downcycle being in effect.
Yesterday 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.
Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12 (filled). Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14 (filled), and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably bottomed early on 8-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX) ultra long via SSO on Monday.
For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX ultra long via QLD on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle has bottomed. NDX created a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1906.74 at today 8-22's open.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.
WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -5.10% today 8-22 versus SPX rising a significant +1.13%, which is a very sharp +3.97% rise in complacency (-5.10% + +1.13% = -3.97% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 8-25.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, was -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:04 PM
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