I'm Looking To Short SPX (S & P 500) And GDX (Gold Miners ETF)

From looking at SPX's (S & P 500) daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, one can tell that SPX probably didn't bottom yet/put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term (since 5-19-08) cycle low. Friday 6-27's candle is black, indicating a bearish close below the open, and, the inverse spike is relatively small/not that bullish. Today 6-30's candle is white, but, has a relatively bearish "large medium" spike on it.

Also, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned bearish again, at -0.31% versus SPX today/on 6-30, and, at -0.56% on 6-27. WMT has a large bearish spike on today's black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, so, the WMT Lead Indicator will probably turn even more bearish tomorrow.

Tomorrow 7-1 will probably bring a good SPX/NDX/RUT shorting opportunity. I'll look to ultra short them via SDS, QID, or TWM. I also might short Walmart (WMT). I ended up day trading GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, because, I realized I was probably a little early. I shorted it at 48.56 and covered at 48.53 for a modest profit.

I'm also looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) tomorrow 7-1, because, the Newmont Mining (NEM) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, the countertrend Wave B type upcycle since early June is peaking. GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's cycles are very bearish. The NEM Lead Indicator was -1.38% versus the XAU today/on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

The countertrend GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave B (since early June) upcycle of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, might have more upside for GDX, GLD and the XAU tomorrow 7-1, but, HUI appears to/might have peaked today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, based on today's bearish candle.

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'm looking to go long, since GNOLF.OB completed a short term Wave 2 downcycle on Friday 6-27 (bullish large inverse spike on a white candle, and, 1.617 million shares on 6-27 and 1.26 million shares today 6-30). I'll be looking to go long tomorrow 7-1 or on 7-2, early in a very short term Wave 3 upcycle, after a very short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms.

For all additional info normally included in the daily update see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/06/theres-probably-significant-additional.html.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

There's Probably Significant Additional SPX/NDX/RUT Downside On Monday

There's probably significant additional SPX (S & P 500 )/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) downside on Monday 6-30, because, the sharp downcycle following yesterday 6-26's bearish gap down at the open, that bottomed late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, is probably a very short term Wave A downcycle, which jives with today 6-27's bearish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.56% versus the S & P 500 (SPX).

A brief likely countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle, that began late today 6-27, appears to have already peaked late today (a large bearish spike occurred shortly before session's end), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, there should be early weakness on Monday 6-30, and, the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-19-08 may finally bottom on Monday.

Walmart (WMT) will very likely fill it's downside gap at 55.75 early on Monday, then watch the downside gap at 52.68, that probably won't (?) get filled. SPX's downside gap at 1276.60, and, 1840.88 for NDX both got filled today as expected.

I'll look to ultra short SPX (S & P 500 )/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) or short WMT early on Monday, if I can get a good entry point. Today I day traded SDS, buying at 66.7397 and sold at 66.9101.

I need to check SPX (S & P 500 )/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) for any downside gaps that might get filled on Monday, and, I'll update this Blog if there are any.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.56% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 6-27, was a bullish +0.72% on 6-26, was +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.

Once SPX puts in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell a sharp -2.05% today 6-27 versus SPX falling a modest -0.37%, which is a sharp +2.42% rise in complacency (-2.05% + -0.37% = -2.42% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 6-27, followed probably by strength, or by sideways action, which tends to occur as large important cycles bottom (or peak).

SPX/NDX/RUT have to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions), in which a 2% follow through (after breaking the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle trendline) buy signal occurs, in order for Trade the Cycles to indicate that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low very likely occurred.

Then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 monthly upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked in early May, and, the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle peaked on 5-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bearish spike on 5-19's candle.

An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'll look to go long once GNOLF.OB completes a short term Wave 2 downcycle in the next few days, possibly did today 6-27 (bullish large inverse spike on a white candle, and, 1.617 million shares today 6-27) or might on Monday.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in Wave B (since early June) of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, that might have peaked today or probably will on Monday 6-30 (The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.45% versus the XAU today/on 6-27), and, they created large bearish breakaway type gaps at 6-10's open at 46.65 (filled 6-27), 433.01 (filled 6-26), 185.15 (filled 6-26), and 87.99 (filled), see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Now that nearly (GLD might fill 92.56 on Monday 6-30) all relevant gaps have been filled, an important cycle high is probably imminent.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

Watch GDX's downside gaps at 44.49 (filled 6-5), 44.10 (filled 6-10), 43.18 (filled ), and 42.65. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 45.10 from 5-15, and, at 42.29, 41.52.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.45% versus the XAU today/on 6-27, was a bearish -0.95% on 6-26, was a slightly bearish -0.08% on 6-25, was a very bullish +1.85% on 6-24, was a modestly bullish +0.37% on 6-23, was a bullish +0.54% on 6-20, was a bullish +0.74% on 6-19, was +0.15% on 6-18, was -0.18% on 6-17, was a very bullish +1.05% versus the XAU on 6-16, was -0.49% on 6-13, was a very bullish +1.26% on 6-12, was +0.64% on 6-11, was -0.22% on 6-10, was +0.66% on 6-9, was -0.85% on 6-6, was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5, was a very bullish +1.61% on 6-4, was +0.25% on 6-3, +0.33% on 6-2.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since mid March 2008 on Wednesday 5-21-08, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/gold-etf-gld-analysis.html. Also, see the COT data that jives big time with that analysis at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.

GDX/GLD/NEM/XAU created huge bearish breakaway gaps at 47.75 (filled), 91.23 (filled), 48.74 (filled), and 188.10 (filled) at 5-27's open, which correctly pointed to more downside early on 5-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

GLD failed to fill it's big bearish breakaway gap at 92.56 from April 18 recently, confirming the bearish case, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, and, it created additional big bearish breakaway gaps at 91.23 (filled 6-27) on 5-27, at 89.14 (filled) on 5-29, at 87.96 (filled) on 6-3, at 87.99 on 6-10 (filled), and, at 87.02 (filled) on 6-12. Therefore, GLD has one very large very bearish breakaway gap now, at 92.56.

I hope you realize that "Deflation Is Everywhere!," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/deflation-is-everywhere.html.

NEM is in Wave 3 up of a monthly upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

5-21 is an HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 5 cycle high of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since 5-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the large bearish spike on 5-21's candle.

NEM has remaining downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. 45.22 (filled) and 44.51 (filled) got filled in the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began on 5-8 and bottomed on 5-13.

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

NEM is a good example of a gold stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, can be traded aggressively long now that a 5% follow through major buy signal occurred on 5-8 (after breaking the Wave 2 major intermediate term downcycle trendline). I'm sure there are many other gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market. The HUI/XAU likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market isn't a "death knell" for all gold/silver stocks.

However, the gold/silver stock trading long/investing environment is likely to be much more difficult now that HUI/XAU are probably in a Cyclical Bear Market. In other words one should probably trade in the same direction as HUI/XAU (with the wind at your back).

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Cyclical Bear Market from 1-31-06 until June 2007 (about 17 months, fell -38.51%, and, since NEM tends to be less volatile than most gold/silver stocks, HUI/XAU falling -45-50%+ is likely) is further strong evidence that HUI/XAU probably entered a 15-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in March 2008.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

"The Bull Case For Gold And Why It Is Totally Incorrect," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-case-for-gold-and-why-it-is.html.

For HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal in March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, tight credit and mortgage lending, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The Extreme Major Averages Volatility Points To An Imminent Intermediate Term Cycle Low

The extreme major averages volatility points to an imminent Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

When declines on the order of -3% to -4% occur as an index is bottoming, that's a sign/indication that an important cycle low is probably imminent, which jives with the WMT Lead Indicator having turned extremely bullish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. Also, the major averages are extremely oversold.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.72% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 6-26, was +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.

Important downside gaps to watch early tomorrow 6-27 are 55.75 for Walmart (WMT), 1276.60 for SPX, and, 1840.88 for NDX. 55.75 probably won't get filled, but, 1276.60 for SPX and 1840.88 for NDX probably will get filled.

A good entry point for day trading long may arise early tomorrow. One obviously must watch WMT/WMT Lead Indicator very closely tomorrow, and, should watch it closely every session.

The US economy is in very bad shape. Consumer confidence is extremely low, and, might be at an all time low in the latest report. This is a very deflationary environment. How can you have too much money chasing too few goods when consumer confidence is extremely low, large job losses are occurring, real estate is in a depression, autos are in a recession, etc. Ignore the gold pimps' and gold nitwits' noise.

The stimulus checks are helping most people buy gas, and little or nothing else. The real estate recession might not end until early next year or later. I could obviously go on about this subject.

Once SPX puts in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX rose an unusually large +13.20% today 6-26 versus SPX falling a sharp -2.94%, which is an unusually large +10.26% rise in fear (+13.20% + -2.94% = +10.26% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 6-27, followed probably by strength, or by sideways action, which tends to occur as large important cycles bottom (or peak).

SPX/NDX/RUT have to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions), in which a 2% follow through (after breaking the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle trendline) buy signal occurs, in order for Trade the Cycles to indicate that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low very likely occurred.

Then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 monthly upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked in early May, and, the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle peaked on 5-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bearish spike on 5-19's candle.

An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

SPX (S & P 500) created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 that got filled today 6-20, and, WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'll look to go long once GNOLF.OB completes a short term Wave 2 downcycle in the next few days, possibly tomorrow/Friday.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in Wave B (since early June) of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, they created large bearish breakaway type gaps at 6-10's open (and 6-12's discussed earlier) at 46.65, 433.01, 185.15, and 87.99 (filled), see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

GDX and NEM filled 6-16's downside gaps at 43.15 and 47.01 on 6-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD made large bullish breakaway gaps at 43.15 filled, 398.32, 175.46, 85.83 at 6-16's open (also 88.42 on 6-20 for GLD), and, filled 6-12's bearish upside breakaway gaps at 44.11, 406.61, 177.58, 87.02, and 47.20 (NEM) on 6-15, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Watch GDX's downside gaps at 44.49 (filled 6-5), 44.10 (filled 6-10), 43.18 (filled ), and 42.65. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 45.10 from 5-15, and, at 42.29, 41.52.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.95% versus the XAU today/on 6-26, was a slightly bearish -0.08% on 6-25, was a very bullish +1.85% on 6-24, was a modestly bullish +0.37% on 6-23, was a bullish +0.54% on 6-20, was a bullish +0.74% on 6-19, was +0.15% on 6-18, was -0.18% on 6-17, was a very bullish +1.05% versus the XAU on 6-16, was -0.49% on 6-13, was a very bullish +1.26% on 6-12, was +0.64% on 6-11, was -0.22% on 6-10, was +0.66% on 6-9, was -0.85% on 6-6, was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5, was a very bullish +1.61% on 6-4, was +0.25% on 6-3, +0.33% on 6-2.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since mid March 2008 on Wednesday 5-21-08, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/gold-etf-gld-analysis.html. Also, see the COT data that jives big time with that analysis at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.

GDX/GLD/NEM/XAU created huge bearish breakaway gaps at 47.75, 91.23, 48.74 (filled), and 188.10 at 5-27's open, which correctly pointed to more downside early on 5-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

GLD failed to fill it's big bearish breakaway gap at 92.56 from April 18 recently, confirming the bearish case, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, and, it created additional big bearish breakaway gaps at 91.23 on 5-27, at 89.14 (filled) on 5-29, at 87.96 (filled) on 6-3, at 87.99 on 6-10 (filled), and, at 87.02 (filled) on 6-12. Therefore, GLD has two very large very bearish breakaway gaps now, at 92.56, 91.23.

I hope you realize that "Deflation Is Everywhere!," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/deflation-is-everywhere.html.

NEM is probably in Wave 3 up of a monthly upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

5-21 is an HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 5 cycle high of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since 5-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the large bearish spike on 5-21's candle.

NEM has remaining downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. 45.22 (filled) and 44.51 (filled) got filled in the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began on 5-8 and bottomed on 5-13.

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

NEM is a good example of a gold stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, can be traded aggressively long now that a 5% follow through major buy signal occurred on 5-8 (after breaking the Wave 2 major intermediate term downcycle trendline). I'm sure there are many other gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market. The HUI/XAU likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market isn't a "death knell" for all gold/silver stocks.

However, the gold/silver stock trading long/investing environment is likely to be much more difficult now that HUI/XAU are probably in a Cyclical Bear Market. In other words one should probably trade in the same direction as HUI/XAU (with the wind at your back).

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Cyclical Bear Market from 1-31-06 until June 2007 (about 17 months, fell -38.51%, and, since NEM tends to be less volatile than most gold/silver stocks, HUI/XAU falling -45-50%+ is likely) is further strong evidence that HUI/XAU probably entered a 15-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in March 2008.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

"The Bull Case For Gold And Why It Is Totally Incorrect," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-case-for-gold-and-why-it-is.html.

For HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal in March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, tight credit and mortgage lending, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Probably Didn't Bottom Yet

SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term (since 5-19-08) cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Both the intraday and the daily SPX candlestick charts (see links above) don't have large inverse spikes yesterday 6-24. Today's candle has a large bearish spike. Also, SPX appears to have failed to fill Friday's bearish breakaway upside gap at 1342.83.

SPX appears to have completed a funky/bearish Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle since very early yesterday 6-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. It looks like an up down up down pattern at a quick glance, but, it's probably a screwy/bearish Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle. We'll see early tomorrow.

The decline following Friday 6-20's large bearish gap down from 1342.83, that bottomed early yesterday 6-24, was probably a very short term Wave A type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

SPX's rebound since early yesterday, that peaked late in the session, was probably a countertrend Wave B type move, so, late today 6-25 SPX probably entered the final very short term Wave C downcycle of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-19-08.

The downside gaps I'm watching are 57.32 and 55.75 for Walmart (WMT), 56.26 got filled early yesterday, and, 1903.74 and 1881.65 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, 1314.29 for SPX. I'm hoping to ultra short NDX via QID early tomorrow and ride it down to the 1875-1880 area, after 1881.65 probably gets filled. NDX's likely Wave A type move bottomed at 1888.01 early yesterday.

Obviously, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator should turn bearish again early tomorrow if the major averages haven't bottomed.

Since the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator turned bullish the past three sessions, at +0.82% versus SPX today/on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24 and +0.67% on 6-23, one can't rule out that SPX/NDX/RUT might have bottomed very early yesterday. If so, they have to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, in which a 2% follow through (after breaking the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle trendline) buy signal occurs, in order for Trade the Cycles to indicate that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low very likely occurred yesterday.

Once SPX puts in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low watch upside gaps at 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell a very sharp -5.71% today 6-25 versus SPX rising a significant +0.58%, which is a very sharp +5.13% rise in complacency (-5.71% + +0.58% = -5.13% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness on Thursday 6-26, after likely early strength.

The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 monthly upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked in early May, and, the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle peaked on 5-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bearish spike on 5-19's candle.

An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

SPX (S & P 500) created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 that got filled today 6-20, and, WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'll look to go long once GNOLF.OB completes a short term Wave 2 downcycle in the next few days, possibly tomorrow/Thursday.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in Wave C (since mid June) of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, they created large bearish breakaway type gaps at 6-10's open (and 6-12's discussed earlier) at 46.65, 433.01, 185.15, and 87.99 (filled), see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GLD (Gold ETF) created a downside gap at yesterday 6-24's open at 87.09, that it filled early today as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

GDX and NEM filled 6-16's downside gaps at 43.15 and 47.01 yesterday 6-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD made large bullish breakaway gaps at 43.15 filled, 398.32, 175.46, 85.83 at 6-16's open (also 88.42 on 6-20 for GLD), and, filled 6-12's bearish upside breakaway gaps at 44.11, 406.61, 177.58, 87.02, and 47.20 (NEM) on 6-15, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Watch GDX's downside gaps at 44.49 (filled 6-5), 44.10 (filled 6-10), 43.18 (filled ), and 42.65. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 45.10 from 5-15, and, at 42.29, 41.52.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.08% versus the XAU today/on 6-25, was a very bullish +1.85% on 6-24, was a modestly bullish +0.37% on 6-23, was a bullish +0.54% on 6-20, was a bullish +0.74% on 6-19, was +0.15% on 6-18, was -0.18% on 6-17, was a very bullish +1.05% versus the XAU on 6-16, was -0.49% on 6-13, was a very bullish +1.26% on 6-12, was +0.64% on 6-11, was -0.22% on 6-10, was +0.66% on 6-9, was -0.85% on 6-6, was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5, was a very bullish +1.61% on 6-4, was +0.25% on 6-3, +0.33% on 6-2.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since mid March 2008 on Wednesday 5-21-08, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/gold-etf-gld-analysis.html. Also, see the COT data that jives big time with that analysis at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.

GDX/GLD/NEM/XAU created huge bearish breakaway gaps at 47.75, 91.23, 48.74 (filled), and 188.10 at 5-27's open, which correctly pointed to more downside early on 5-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

GLD failed to fill it's big bearish breakaway gap at 92.56 from April 18 recently, confirming the bearish case, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, and, it created additional big bearish breakaway gaps at 91.23 on 5-27, at 89.14 (filled) on 5-29, at 87.96 (filled) on 6-3, at 87.99 on 6-10 (filled), and, at 87.02 (filled) on 6-12. Therefore, GLD has two very large very bearish breakaway gaps now, at 92.56, 91.23.

I hope you realize that "Deflation Is Everywhere!," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/deflation-is-everywhere.html.

NEM is probably in Wave 3 up of a monthly upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

5-21 is an HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 5 cycle high of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since 5-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the large bearish spike on 5-21's candle.

NEM has remaining downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. 45.22 (filled) and 44.51 (filled) got filled in the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began on 5-8 and bottomed on 5-13.

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

NEM is a good example of a gold stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, can be traded aggressively long now that a 5% follow through major buy signal occurred on 5-8 (after breaking the Wave 2 major intermediate term downcycle trendline). I'm sure there are many other gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market. The HUI/XAU likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market isn't a "death knell" for all gold/silver stocks.

However, the gold/silver stock trading long/investing environment is likely to be much more difficult now that HUI/XAU are probably in a Cyclical Bear Market. In other words one should probably trade in the same direction as HUI/XAU (with the wind at your back).

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Cyclical Bear Market from 1-31-06 until June 2007 (about 17 months, fell -38.51%, and, since NEM tends to be less volatile than most gold/silver stocks, HUI/XAU falling -45-50%+ is likely) is further strong evidence that HUI/XAU probably entered a 15-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in March 2008.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

"The Bull Case For Gold And Why It Is Totally Incorrect," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-case-for-gold-and-why-it-is.html.

For HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal in March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, tight credit and mortgage lending, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle Is Approaching A Cycle Low

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle (since 5-19-08) is approaching a cycle low.

The decline following Friday 6-20's large bearish gap down from 1342.83, that bottomed early today 6-24, was probably a very short term Wave A type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Today's intraday SPX rebound, that peaked late in the session, was probably a countertrend Wave B type move, so, late today 6-24 SPX probably entered the final very short term Wave C downcycle of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-19-08.

The downside gaps I'm watching are 55.75 for Walmart (WMT), 56.26 got filled early today, and, 1881.65 for NDX (NASDAQ 100). I'm hoping to ultra short NDX via QID early tomorrow and ride it down to the 1875-1880 area, after 1881.65 probably gets filled.

NDX's likely Wave A type move bottomed at 1888.01 early today. Obviously, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator should turn bearish again early tomorrow if the major averages haven't bottomed. Today I did a very brief day trade, I bought QID at 41.6699 and sold at 41.72.

Since the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator turned bullish the past two sessions, at
+1.48% versus SPX today/on 6-24 and +0.67% on 6-23, one can't rule out that SPX/NDX/RUT might have bottomed today. If so, they have to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, in which a 2% follow through (after breaking the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle trendline) buy signal occurs, in order for Trade the Cycles to indicate that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low very likely occurred today.

Once SPX puts in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low watch upside gaps at 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell a significant -0.97% today 6-24 versus SPX falling a modest -0.28%, which is a significant +1.25% rise in complacency (-0.97% + -0.28% = -1.25% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness on Wednesday 6-25, after likely early strength.

The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 monthly upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked in early May, and, the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle peaked on 5-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bearish spike on 5-19's candle.

An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

SPX (S & P 500) created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 that got filled today 6-20, and, WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'll look to go long once GNOLF.OB completes a short term Wave 2 downcycle in the next few days, possibly tomorrow/Wednesday.

GLD (Gold ETF) created a downside gap at today 6-24's open at 87.09, that it looks like it''ll fill early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

GDX and NEM filled 6-16's downside gaps at 43.15 and 47.01 yesterday 6-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD made large bullish breakaway gaps at 43.15 filled, 398.32, 175.46, 85.83 at 6-16's open (also 88.42 on 6-20 for GLD), and, filled 6-12's bearish upside breakaway gaps at 44.11, 406.61, 177.58, 87.02, and 47.20 (NEM) on 6-15, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in Wave B (since early June) of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, they created large bearish breakaway type gaps at 6-10's open (and 6-12's discussed earlier) at 46.65, 433.01, 185.15, and 87.99 (filled), see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. NEM created a large bearish breakaway type gap at 6-10's open at 49.02 (filled 6-19).

Watch GDX's downside gaps at 44.49 (filled 6-5), 44.10 (filled 6-10), 43.18 (filled ), and 42.65. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 45.10 from 5-15, and, at 42.29, 41.52.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.85% versus the XAU today/on 6-24, was a modestly bullish +0.37% on 6-23, was a bullish +0.54% on 6-20, was a bullish +0.74% on 6-19, was +0.15% on 6-18, was -0.18% on 6-17, was a very bullish +1.05% versus the XAU on 6-16, was -0.49% on 6-13, was a very bullish +1.26% on 6-12, was +0.64% on 6-11, was -0.22% on 6-10, was +0.66% on 6-9, was -0.85% on 6-6, was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5, was a very bullish +1.61% on 6-4, was +0.25% on 6-3, +0.33% on 6-2.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since mid March 2008 on Wednesday 5-21-08, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/gold-etf-gld-analysis.html. Also, see the COT data that jives big time with that analysis at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.

GDX/GLD/NEM/XAU created huge bearish breakaway gaps at 47.75, 91.23, 48.74 (filled), and 188.10 at 5-27's open, which correctly pointed to more downside early on 5-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

GLD failed to fill it's big bearish breakaway gap at 92.56 from April 18 recently, confirming the bearish case, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, and, it created additional big bearish breakaway gaps at 91.23 on 5-27, at 89.14 (filled) on 5-29, at 87.96 (filled) on 6-3, at 87.99 on 6-10 (filled), and, at 87.02 (filled) on 6-12. Therefore, GLD has two very large very bearish breakaway gaps now, at 92.56, 91.23.

I hope you realize that "Deflation Is Everywhere!," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/deflation-is-everywhere.html.

NEM is probably in Wave 3 up of a monthly upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

5-21 is an HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 5 cycle high of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since 5-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the large bearish spike on 5-21's candle.

NEM has remaining downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. 45.22 (filled) and 44.51 (filled) got filled in the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began on 5-8 and bottomed on 5-13.

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

NEM is a good example of a gold stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, can be traded aggressively long now that a 5% follow through major buy signal occurred on 5-8 (after breaking the Wave 2 major intermediate term downcycle trendline). I'm sure there are many other gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market. The HUI/XAU likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market isn't a "death knell" for all gold/silver stocks.

However, the gold/silver stock trading long/investing environment is likely to be much more difficult now that HUI/XAU are probably in a Cyclical Bear Market. In other words one should probably trade in the same direction as HUI/XAU (with the wind at your back).

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Cyclical Bear Market from 1-31-06 until June 2007 (about 17 months, fell -38.51%, and, since NEM tends to be less volatile than most gold/silver stocks, HUI/XAU falling -45-50%+ is likely) is further strong evidence that HUI/XAU probably entered a 15-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in March 2008.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

"The Bull Case For Gold And Why It Is Totally Incorrect," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-case-for-gold-and-why-it-is.html.

For HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal in March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, tight credit and mortgage lending, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/ .

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Will Probably Bounce Early Tomorrow

SPX (S & P 500) will probably bounce early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, will probably try to fill Thursday's large bearish breakaway upside gap at 1342.83.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.67% versus SPX today 6-23, and, was -0.63% on 6-20, -0.34% on 6-19, -0.77% on 6-18, -0.37% on 6-17, +0.21% on 6-16, -1.39% on 6-13.

Looking at SPX's daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which shows that Friday 6-20's candle is black (indicates a close below the open) with a tiny inverse spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, indicates that SPX probably didn't bottom Friday. Important cycle lows tend to have white (indicates a close above the open) candles with bullish large inverse spikes.

StockCharts labeled Friday a cycle low, but, it'll probably be a very short term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term (since 5-19-08) cycle low.

If SPX (S & P 500) fills it's upside gap at 1342.83 tomorrow or clearly fails to do so, look for the WMT Lead Indicator to turn bearish again, and, a good entry point for ultra shorting SPX via SDS may arise tomorrow.

Note that WMT has a very large bearish spike on 6-18's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, has a very large bearish spike on 6-18's and 6-20's (at the open) intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Walmart (WMT) created a downside gap at 56.26 today. Watch 56.26 and 55.75 on Tuesday.

I'll be looking to ultra short SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM on Tuesday, or, I might short WMT.

Once SPX puts in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low watch upside gaps at 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell a significant -1.01% today 6-23 versus SPX rising a slight +0.01%, which is a significant +1.00% rise in complacency (-1.01% + +0.01% = -1.00% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness on Tuesday 6-23, after likely early strength.

The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 monthly upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked in early May, and, the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle peaked on 5-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bearish spike on 5-19's candle.

An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

SPX (S & P 500) created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 that got filled today 6-20, and, WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

GNOLF.OB didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 6-16, because, it spiked at the open and trended down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnolf.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. If GNOLF.OB had trended up for a few hours on 6-16 it probably would have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal.

That being said, GNOLF.OB appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in early June, note the huge very bullish inverse spike, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf) for over two years. Volume has exploded recently, which is obviously a good sign.

GNOLF.OB put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 6-16 at 0.478, note the large bearish spike on 6-16's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnolf. I'll look to go long once GNOLF.OB completes a short term Wave 2 downcycle in the next few days, possibly tomorrow/Tuesday.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

GDX and NEM filled 6-16's downside gaps at 43.15 and 47.01 today 6-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD made large bullish breakaway gaps at 43.15 filled, 398.32, 175.46, 85.83 at 6-16's open (also 88.42 on 6-20 for GLD), and, filled 6-12's bearish upside breakaway gaps at 44.11, 406.61, 177.58, 87.02, and 47.20 (NEM) on 6-15, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in Wave B (since early June) of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 5-21-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, they created large bearish breakaway type gaps at 6-10's open (and 6-12's discussed earlier) at 46.65, 433.01, 185.15, and 87.99 (filled), see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

NEM created a large bearish breakaway type gap at 6-10's open at 49.02 (filled 6-19).Watch GDX's downside gaps at 44.49 (filled 6-5), 44.10 (filled 6-10), 43.18 (filled ), and 42.65. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 45.10 from 5-15, and, at 42.29, 41.52.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU today/on 6-23, was a bullish +0.54% on 6-20, was a bullish +0.74% on 6-19, was a slightly bullish +0.15% on 6-18, was a slightly bearish -0.18% on 6-17, was a very bullish +1.05% versus the XAU on 6-16, was a bearish -0.49% on 6-13, was a very bullish +1.26% on 6-12, was a bullish +0.64% on 6-11, was -0.22% on 6-10, was +0.66% on 6-9, was -0.85% on 6-6, was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5, was a very bullish +1.61% on 6-4, was +0.25% on 6-3, +0.33% on 6-2.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since mid March 2008 on Wednesday 5-21-08, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/gold-etf-gld-analysis.html. Also, see the COT data that jives big time with that analysis at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.

GDX/GLD/NEM/XAU created huge bearish breakaway gaps at 47.75, 91.23, 48.74 (filled), and 188.10 at 5-27's open, which correctly pointed to more downside early on 5-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

GLD failed to fill it's big bearish breakaway gap at 92.56 from April 18 recently, confirming the bearish case, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, and, it created additional big bearish breakaway gaps at 91.23 on 5-27, at 89.14 (filled) on 5-29, at 87.96 (filled) on 6-3, at 87.99 on 6-10 (filled), and, at 87.02 (filled) on 6-12. Therefore, GLD has two very large very bearish breakaway gaps now, at 92.56, 91.23.

I hope you realize that "Deflation Is Everywhere!," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/deflation-is-everywhere.html.

NEM is probably in Wave 3 up of a monthly upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

5-21 is an HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 5 cycle high of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since 5-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the large bearish spike on 5-21's candle.

NEM has remaining downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. 45.22 (filled) and 44.51 (filled) got filled in the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began on 5-8 and bottomed on 5-13.

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

NEM is a good example of a gold stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, can be traded aggressively long now that a 5% follow through major buy signal occurred on 5-8 (after breaking the Wave 2 major intermediate term downcycle trendline). I'm sure there are many other gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market. The HUI/XAU likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market isn't a "death knell" for all gold/silver stocks.

However, the gold/silver stock trading long/investing environment is likely to be much more difficult now that HUI/XAU are probably in a Cyclical Bear Market. In other words one should probably trade in the same direction as HUI/XAU (with the wind at your back).

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Cyclical Bear Market from 1-31-06 until June 2007 (about 17 months, fell -38.51%, and, since NEM tends to be less volatile than most gold/silver stocks, HUI/XAU falling -45-50%+ is likely) is further strong evidence that HUI/XAU probably entered a 15-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in March 2008.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

"The Bull Case For Gold And Why It Is Totally Incorrect," see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-case-for-gold-and-why-it-is.html.

For HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal in March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, tight credit and mortgage lending, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.

.......http://wwwJoeFRocks.com/ .

NEM XAU HUI