Trade the Cycles

Sunday, April 27, 2008

.......A Crashing Velocity (Circulation) Of Money

See the velocity (circulation) of money chart at http://www.bullandbearwise.com/VelocityChart.asp to see how it's crashing in recent years, which means that rapid (depending on which measure one looks at) money supply growth is having less and less of a stimulative/inflationary effect on the US economy, which has created a very deflationary environment. Basically, the Fed is nearly powerless now to stimulate the US economy, especially since rates are so low now. They obviously can't do much more rate cutting.

The unraveling of the (abused) credit/debt instruments (CDO's, securitizations, etc) is causing the velocity (circulation) of money to crash at probably/very likely an even greater rate in recent months, which is a very deflationary/bearish situation for gold/silver. The Fed's ability to inflate the US economy out of the current huge deflationary mess is very limited.

My 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.

.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .


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3 Comments:

  • The good news is that the gold cockroaches/nitwits house of cards is coming crashing down. Every sector has it's lowlifes.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:26 AM  

  • The gold cockroaches/nitwits infest the internet (web sites and message boards) like a vile twisted disease, with their non stop scamming/manipulating/fraudulent criminal activity. Those days are basically over now. Hallelujah!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:32 AM  

  • Jack Chan, a gold writer I respect, but, who doesn't understand Elliott Wave or cycles well if at all, was on a (dangerous) buy signal in the recent short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that peaked on 4-17, see Jack's Latest Article.

    He had investors/traders catch a falling knife, without intending to do so.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:10 PM  

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