SPX/NDX/RUT Appear To Have Put In A Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Today
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) appear to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today (monthly cycle low on 4-15 and intermediate term cycle low on 3-17), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which jives with the very bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +1.18% versus SPX today 4-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. Also, the SPX wall of worry/fear grew by +0.97% today (discussed later), which points to some significant strength tomorrow.
Watch downside gaps at 1365.56 for SPX, at 1840.88 for NDX, and, at 692.06 for RUT, in case more downside/short term Wave 2 downcycle occurs tomorrow.
RUT (Russell 2000) appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down short term Wave 2 downcycle since mid session on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, clearly appears to have begun a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, ending the session in Wave 3 peaking, so, early tomorrow a good RUT long day trading opportunity/entry point may arise in an intraday Wave 4 downcycle. I'll be looking to trade RUT ultra long early tomorrow via UWM. RUT appears to be a better long trade than SPX or NDX right now.
VIX rose a significant +1.85% today/on 4-22 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.88% on 4-22, which is a significant +0.97% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.97% = +1.85% + -0.88% = +0.97% rise in fear) that points to some significant strength on Wednesday 4-23.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 and WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
The XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20 (HUI/gold since 4-1) has done an Elliott wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, appears to have peaked, but, the Wave B trendline hasn't broken down yet, but, looks like it might tomorrow.
The XAU has a large bearish spike on today's bearish black candle, which indicates a close below the open (the black candle indicates a close below the open), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.65% versus the XAU today/on 4-22 and was a very bearish -1.43% on 4-21.
GDX filled it's downside gap at 48 today, now watch the one at 46.39. The XAU has downside gaps at 184.35 and 172.87. NEM has downside gaps at 42.29, 41.52.
I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX or NEM/GLD early on Wednesday.
The huge HUI/XAU/gold very short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions) five weeks ago triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count, Wave A downcycle type move in the second half of the session) it looks like there will/might be brief early weakness on Wednesday 4-23 followed by some probably brief intraday Wave B strength/potential entry point for a short trade tomorrow 4-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
For the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Watch downside gaps at 1365.56 for SPX, at 1840.88 for NDX, and, at 692.06 for RUT, in case more downside/short term Wave 2 downcycle occurs tomorrow.
RUT (Russell 2000) appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down short term Wave 2 downcycle since mid session on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, clearly appears to have begun a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, ending the session in Wave 3 peaking, so, early tomorrow a good RUT long day trading opportunity/entry point may arise in an intraday Wave 4 downcycle. I'll be looking to trade RUT ultra long early tomorrow via UWM. RUT appears to be a better long trade than SPX or NDX right now.
VIX rose a significant +1.85% today/on 4-22 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.88% on 4-22, which is a significant +0.97% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.97% = +1.85% + -0.88% = +0.97% rise in fear) that points to some significant strength on Wednesday 4-23.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 and WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
The XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20 (HUI/gold since 4-1) has done an Elliott wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, appears to have peaked, but, the Wave B trendline hasn't broken down yet, but, looks like it might tomorrow.
The XAU has a large bearish spike on today's bearish black candle, which indicates a close below the open (the black candle indicates a close below the open), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.65% versus the XAU today/on 4-22 and was a very bearish -1.43% on 4-21.
GDX filled it's downside gap at 48 today, now watch the one at 46.39. The XAU has downside gaps at 184.35 and 172.87. NEM has downside gaps at 42.29, 41.52.
I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX or NEM/GLD early on Wednesday.
The huge HUI/XAU/gold very short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions) five weeks ago triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count, Wave A downcycle type move in the second half of the session) it looks like there will/might be brief early weakness on Wednesday 4-23 followed by some probably brief intraday Wave B strength/potential entry point for a short trade tomorrow 4-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
For the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The rest of the info is for reference purposes or for new readers.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
The real estate/too easy mortgage boom from 2002 until early 2006 was very inflationary. The current bust is obviously the diametric opposite/very deflationary. Combined with plummeting major world stock markets, many annihilated financial stocks, plummeting money market rates and bond yields, plummeting credit/debt instruments, real estate bust, etc and it's pretty obvious that the environment is very deflationary.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:32 PM
2 Comments:
Any trader or investor worth his or her salt KNOWS that gold's multi month uptrend line broke down five weeks ago and to be very cautious/bearish now. It's a very obvious major technical breakdown, and, gold's action since then confirms it.
Long term investors should NEVER chase huge spike moves, they should buy near gold's primary multi year trendline since April 2001.
Many gold writers, who don't understand basic technical analysis or are scam artists, are still trying to get investors to buy gold, which is catching a falling knife now.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:28 PM
Remember, a deception for personal gain is fraud, which is criminal activity. Remember that when you read the gold loons/scam artists. Some gold writers are basically involved in a variation of the get rich quick scheme.
Or they say it's "insurance" or that it'll "protect you." Gold is only marginally above where it was TWENTY EIGHT YEARS AGO. That's protection?
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:33 PM
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