Massive Fed Credit And A Very Bullish WMT Lead Indicator Propped The Market Up Again Today
4-15-08 Synopsis:
Massive Fed credit (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), a very bullish WMT Lead Indicator (+1.57% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 4-15, +0.98% on 4-14, +2.30% on 4-11, +0.51% on 4-10, +0.24% on 4-9, +0.92% on 4-8), and, yesterday's significant rise in fear/SPX wall of worry, propped up the market again today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
However, SPX (S & P 500) tried to fill it's downside gap at 1322.70 again today and made a lower cycle low today than yesterday's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, NDX (NASDAQ 100) filled it's downside gap at 1781.93 today and RUT (Russell 2000) filled it's downside gap at 687.97 yesterday, so, RUT and NDX might have put in monthly cycle lows yesterday (see RUT, which appears to have bottomed, at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and today respectively, but, the SPX wall of worry points to severe weakness tomorrow, and, Walmart (WMT) had a spike move today 4-15 that will probably correct tomorrow, so, SPX/NDX/RUT's monthly downcycle since 4-7-08 might not have bottomed yet.
The SPX wall of worry points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday 4-16. VIX fell a very sharp -4.37% today/on 4-15 versus the S & P 500 rising a modest +0.46% on 4-15, which is a very sharp +3.91% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -3.91% = -4.37% + +0.46% = +3.91% rise in complacency) that points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday 4-16.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.46% versus the XAU today 4-15. The very bearish short term NEM Lead Indicator, at an extremely bearish -2.10% versus the XAU on 4-14, at +0.30% on 4-11, at +0.50% on 4-10, at -1.59% on 4-9 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), at +1.16% on 4-8, -0.62% on 4-7, -0.65% on 4-4, -0.60% on 4-3, -1.00% on 4-2, correctly pointed to a good shorting opportunity.
It's likely that NEM will fill it's downside gap at 44.80 tomorrow and bottom at 44.60ish. GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill today's downside gap at 48 and bottom at 47.80ish (Wave 2 since 4-7 should bottom, of the short term Wave B since 4-1-08), or, might make a run at the downside gap at 46.39 and bottom at 46.20ish. As bearish as the NEM Lead Indicator is this could easily happen.
End of the 4-15-08 Synopsis
I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, with an entry point at 48.7801 and an exit point at 48.7299. My entry point could have (and should have) been better, but, it was a tough day to short. I made money on a tough day to day trade, which is the positive aspect of today's session.
I'll be looking to day trade GDX (the Gold Miners ETF) short early/maybe long later on on Wednesday if I'm convinced that the very short term Wave 2 downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed, and, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM (will look to short early on), and, I might day trade some calls, once I'm convinced that the monthly downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed.
Let me opine about some of the gold writers. Any trader or investor worth his or her salt KNOWS that gold's multi month uptrend line broke down four weeks ago and to be cautious/bearish now. It's a FACT.
That's why it's so easy to separate the men from the boys and the women from the girls. The Mickey Mouse world of make believe too many gold writers live in is sad and pathetic. They don't realize that most people KNOW they are full of crap. There isn't a grey area at all.
After gold's multi month uptrend line broke down in May 2006 it took SEVENTEEN MONTHS to get back to break even. Gold might put in a double top in a few weeks/months, but, gold's likely to be in an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, or, at least a major multi month downcycle/correction.
However, gold's huge spike move from 8-16-07 to the March 17, 2008 cycle high at $1033 is likely to be the final Wave 5 spike move of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since April 2001.
That's all for today, see the rest of the pertinent info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/spx-s-p-500-might-have-put-in-short_07.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Massive Fed credit (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), a very bullish WMT Lead Indicator (+1.57% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 4-15, +0.98% on 4-14, +2.30% on 4-11, +0.51% on 4-10, +0.24% on 4-9, +0.92% on 4-8), and, yesterday's significant rise in fear/SPX wall of worry, propped up the market again today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
However, SPX (S & P 500) tried to fill it's downside gap at 1322.70 again today and made a lower cycle low today than yesterday's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, NDX (NASDAQ 100) filled it's downside gap at 1781.93 today and RUT (Russell 2000) filled it's downside gap at 687.97 yesterday, so, RUT and NDX might have put in monthly cycle lows yesterday (see RUT, which appears to have bottomed, at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and today respectively, but, the SPX wall of worry points to severe weakness tomorrow, and, Walmart (WMT) had a spike move today 4-15 that will probably correct tomorrow, so, SPX/NDX/RUT's monthly downcycle since 4-7-08 might not have bottomed yet.
The SPX wall of worry points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday 4-16. VIX fell a very sharp -4.37% today/on 4-15 versus the S & P 500 rising a modest +0.46% on 4-15, which is a very sharp +3.91% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -3.91% = -4.37% + +0.46% = +3.91% rise in complacency) that points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday 4-16.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.46% versus the XAU today 4-15. The very bearish short term NEM Lead Indicator, at an extremely bearish -2.10% versus the XAU on 4-14, at +0.30% on 4-11, at +0.50% on 4-10, at -1.59% on 4-9 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), at +1.16% on 4-8, -0.62% on 4-7, -0.65% on 4-4, -0.60% on 4-3, -1.00% on 4-2, correctly pointed to a good shorting opportunity.
It's likely that NEM will fill it's downside gap at 44.80 tomorrow and bottom at 44.60ish. GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill today's downside gap at 48 and bottom at 47.80ish (Wave 2 since 4-7 should bottom, of the short term Wave B since 4-1-08), or, might make a run at the downside gap at 46.39 and bottom at 46.20ish. As bearish as the NEM Lead Indicator is this could easily happen.
End of the 4-15-08 Synopsis
I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, with an entry point at 48.7801 and an exit point at 48.7299. My entry point could have (and should have) been better, but, it was a tough day to short. I made money on a tough day to day trade, which is the positive aspect of today's session.
I'll be looking to day trade GDX (the Gold Miners ETF) short early/maybe long later on on Wednesday if I'm convinced that the very short term Wave 2 downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed, and, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM (will look to short early on), and, I might day trade some calls, once I'm convinced that the monthly downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed.
Let me opine about some of the gold writers. Any trader or investor worth his or her salt KNOWS that gold's multi month uptrend line broke down four weeks ago and to be cautious/bearish now. It's a FACT.
That's why it's so easy to separate the men from the boys and the women from the girls. The Mickey Mouse world of make believe too many gold writers live in is sad and pathetic. They don't realize that most people KNOW they are full of crap. There isn't a grey area at all.
After gold's multi month uptrend line broke down in May 2006 it took SEVENTEEN MONTHS to get back to break even. Gold might put in a double top in a few weeks/months, but, gold's likely to be in an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, or, at least a major multi month downcycle/correction.
However, gold's huge spike move from 8-16-07 to the March 17, 2008 cycle high at $1033 is likely to be the final Wave 5 spike move of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since April 2001.
That's all for today, see the rest of the pertinent info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/spx-s-p-500-might-have-put-in-short_07.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:40 AM
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