SPX (S & P 500) Is In Wave C Down Of The Monthly Downcycle Since 4-7
4-11 Synopsis:
SPX (S & P 500) entered Wave C down of the monthly downcycle since 4-7 yesterday, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. NDX (NASDAQ 100) and RUT (Russell 2000) are also doing Wave C down of a monthly downcycle, but, RUT might have bottomed just before session's end, because, the downside gap at 687.97 got filled late today.
SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 1322.70 on 4-1, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has one at 1781.93, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has one at 687.97 that got filled late today, therefore, RUT might have bottomed late today or might do so early on Monday. So, the monthly cycle low (should occur early Monday) targets are 1320ish for SPX, 1780ish for NDX, and 687ish for RUT. Important cycle lows (and cycle highs) tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.
The WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.30% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-11, was +0.51% versus SPX on 4-10, was +0.24% on 4-9, and, was +0.92% on 4-8, which jives with a monthly cycle low occurring for SPX/NDX/RUT on Monday.
The SPX wall of worry points to some potentially substantial strength on Monday 4-14, following likely early weakness/a monthly cycle low occurring. VIX rose a substantial +6.73% today/on 4-11 versus the S & P 500 falling a sharp -2.04% on 4-11, which is a very sharp +4.69% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +4.69% = +6.73% + -2.04% = +4.69% rise in fear) that points to some potentially substantial strength on Monday 4-14, following likely early weakness.
HUI's Wave C (began just after yesterday 4-10's open/correction from 4-11's open) of Wave 2 (began Monday 4-7) of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 4-1-08 began just after yesterday 4-10's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. HUI's Wave A of Wave 2 (of the short term Wave B) bottomed at 442.28 on Tuesday 4-8, and, by session's end HUI took out the Wave A cycle low. Early on Monday HUI/XAU/gold's very short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom.
I'll be looking to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) long on Monday (I might be on vacation) once I'm convinced it bottomed, and, obviously will look to short early on. GDX has a downside gap from 4-2 at 46.39 that might get filled in the next day or two.
The very bearish short term NEM Lead Indicator, at +0.30% versus the XAU today/on 4-11, at +0.50% versus the XAU on 4-10, at -1.59% on 4-9 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), at +1.16% on 4-8, -0.62% on 4-7, -0.65% on 4-4, -0.60% on 4-3, -1.00% on 4-2, correctly pointed to a good shorting opportunity.
End of the 4-11-08 Synopsis.
I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, with an entry point at 48.95 and an exit point at 48.28. I day traded SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 ETF) today, with an entry point at 61.55 and an exit point at 62.43.
I'll be looking (I might be on vacation) to day trade GDX (the Gold Miners ETF) short early/maybe long later on on Monday if I'm convinced that the very short term Wave 2 downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed, and, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I might day trade some calls, once I'm convinced that the monthly downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed.
That's all for today, see the rest of the pertinent info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/spx-s-p-500-might-have-put-in-short_07.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500) entered Wave C down of the monthly downcycle since 4-7 yesterday, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. NDX (NASDAQ 100) and RUT (Russell 2000) are also doing Wave C down of a monthly downcycle, but, RUT might have bottomed just before session's end, because, the downside gap at 687.97 got filled late today.
SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 1322.70 on 4-1, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has one at 1781.93, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has one at 687.97 that got filled late today, therefore, RUT might have bottomed late today or might do so early on Monday. So, the monthly cycle low (should occur early Monday) targets are 1320ish for SPX, 1780ish for NDX, and 687ish for RUT. Important cycle lows (and cycle highs) tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.
The WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.30% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-11, was +0.51% versus SPX on 4-10, was +0.24% on 4-9, and, was +0.92% on 4-8, which jives with a monthly cycle low occurring for SPX/NDX/RUT on Monday.
The SPX wall of worry points to some potentially substantial strength on Monday 4-14, following likely early weakness/a monthly cycle low occurring. VIX rose a substantial +6.73% today/on 4-11 versus the S & P 500 falling a sharp -2.04% on 4-11, which is a very sharp +4.69% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +4.69% = +6.73% + -2.04% = +4.69% rise in fear) that points to some potentially substantial strength on Monday 4-14, following likely early weakness.
HUI's Wave C (began just after yesterday 4-10's open/correction from 4-11's open) of Wave 2 (began Monday 4-7) of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 4-1-08 began just after yesterday 4-10's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. HUI's Wave A of Wave 2 (of the short term Wave B) bottomed at 442.28 on Tuesday 4-8, and, by session's end HUI took out the Wave A cycle low. Early on Monday HUI/XAU/gold's very short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom.
I'll be looking to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) long on Monday (I might be on vacation) once I'm convinced it bottomed, and, obviously will look to short early on. GDX has a downside gap from 4-2 at 46.39 that might get filled in the next day or two.
The very bearish short term NEM Lead Indicator, at +0.30% versus the XAU today/on 4-11, at +0.50% versus the XAU on 4-10, at -1.59% on 4-9 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), at +1.16% on 4-8, -0.62% on 4-7, -0.65% on 4-4, -0.60% on 4-3, -1.00% on 4-2, correctly pointed to a good shorting opportunity.
End of the 4-11-08 Synopsis.
I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, with an entry point at 48.95 and an exit point at 48.28. I day traded SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 ETF) today, with an entry point at 61.55 and an exit point at 62.43.
I'll be looking (I might be on vacation) to day trade GDX (the Gold Miners ETF) short early/maybe long later on on Monday if I'm convinced that the very short term Wave 2 downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed, and, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I might day trade some calls, once I'm convinced that the monthly downcycle since 4-7 has bottomed.
That's all for today, see the rest of the pertinent info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/spx-s-p-500-might-have-put-in-short_07.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:12 PM
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