Trade the Cycles

Saturday, April 05, 2008

All Stock/ETF Trades In My Taxable Accounts Were Profitable In 2007

All stock/ETF trades in my taxable accounts were profitable in 2007. The same was true in 2005 I think it was. One recent year, maybe 2006, was about 88% of the trades being profitable in my taxable accounts (I also trade in IRAs).

Trade the Cycles and the methods I use (candlestick charts help) obviously have an extremely high success rate. The Trade the Cycles system obviously deserves most of the credit.

I hope you calculated risk takers are having a great weekend, and, to you gamblers, good luck! Ciao.

.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 5:06 PM

11 Comments:

  • Also, I haven't had a losing stock/ETF trade so far this year, in either my taxable or tax deferred accounts. I'm starting to feel like Joe DiMaggio baby!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 5:52 PM  

  • Before claiming "Trade the Cycles" system is "extremely successful" don't you think you should be naming some accurate rates of return on equity? I mean did you make +200% in 2007? +100%? +50%? +20%? +5%?

    Any of these rates of return vs funds at risk could be rightly called "profitable." But there is clearly a big difference between them in regard to the growth of capital. How about some full disclosure, Joe? How about some transparency? Don't try to obscure the real issue with vague statements. Or maybe you do this on purpose because your real rate of return is nothing much to brag about?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:52 PM  

  • I don't have the time right now to fully address the comment (it's Saturday night), but, it made sense in recent months to day trade a lot, so, there were a lot of singles and bunt singles.

    The market conditions (SPX needed to establish an intermediate term cycle low in recent months) made day trading a good strategy. It's not only % return, but, how much money one makes/the position size used. When one has a very high batting average one can confidently trade larger postions.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:54 PM  

  • My strategy now is to largely trade indexes using ETFs. The % rate of return tends to be relatively low on any one trade, but, I'm able to trade large positions and trade a lot.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:03 PM  

  • Hope I'm not butting in to the conversation but wouldn't it be really easy to just subtract the starting account balance from the ending balance. Then divide the difference by the starting balance and multiply by 100 to get the percentage return for 2007?

    Just a thought.

    By the way (speaking of ETFs)^^^ check out the nice hammer on the weekly GDX after it bounced off the 50 DMA ++++ Sure you wanna short that thing?

    http://aycu09.webshots.com/image/50128/2001250524566382588_rs.jpg

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:53 AM  

  • I have more than one taxable account and I sometimes transfer funds between accounts, so, a simple method won't work.

    In three trades alone last year, shorting NEM, shorting GDX (Gold Miners ETF), and QID (UltraShort QQQQ), I made about 15% or more. The NEM and GDX shorts made about 6% each (NEM was +6.23%) and the QID trade made 3%+.

    Rate of return has a lot to do with market conditions. One thing Trade the Cycles has definitely done is to earn very high rates of return (40-50-60%+) year after year.

    The repeatability year after year is what makes a system great, due to compounding. How many times does a mutual fund have a great year or quarter and is never heard from again?

    HUI/XAU/gold are in a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 4-1 for HUI/gold and since 3-20 for the XAU, so, I'm only looking to day trade them short on Monday, because Wave 1 of Wave B for HUI may peak early on Monday.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:55 PM  

  • Within days after the S & P 500 put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 10-11-07, I said in this Blog that it was a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high.

    In May 2006 I knew to look for a very important HUI/XAU/gold cycle high. After the 5% major sell signal HUI/XAU/gold were underwater for 17 months.

    The huge HUI/XAU/gold spike since 8-16-07 is probably the final blowoff Wave 5 spike move of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 for HUI/XAU and since April 2001 for gold.

    I'm the only one who knows that a Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun for HUI/XAU/gold, gold might put in a double top.

    All this thanks to the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Try to find a link to another timer who knew this stuff.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:37 PM  

  • LEGAL NOTICE

    its illegal to claim you made 40-50-60% per year without providing proof. you better start working on some math with exact numbers or I'm emailing my friend at sec fraud division. you know the penalty for misrepresenting investing performance? i do and i bet you haven't got the cash to spare, bozo.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:04 AM  

  • I'm just writing a personal Blog of my trading using Trade the Cycles. Even if I was misrepresenting my performance it wouldn't be illegal.

    The 40-50-60%+/year figure is an educated guess.

    In 2005 I was 32-0. If the average trade was +1.5% then I did 48%, assuming the position size was always the same, but it wasn't. My work speaks very well for itself, I'm done with this subject.

    From now on I'm going to be limiting my responses to slimebag loser gold Nazis.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:58 AM  

  • I also trade in IRAs, the 32-0 figure in 2005 is for taxable accounts, so, any figure isn't a total picture anyway. I'm done with this.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:05 AM  

  • It's fun watching the sucker clueless chump gold writers who think that trees grow to the sky and that major corrections and Cyclical Bears never happen.

    It's also going to be fun watching the garbage gold stocks with no earnings and piss poor management approach zero in the next 18 months.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:01 AM  

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