Trade the Cycles

Thursday, April 03, 2008

.......Calculated Risk Takers Versus Gamblers

To be a successful trader or investor one has to be a calculated risk taker and obviously not a gambler. Very few serious gamblers are successful at gambling or life. Do you know or have you ever heard of a single successful long time gambler?

Gamblers tend to be emotional/reckless and do foolish things. Gamblers are probably much more likely to be involved in shady or even criminal activities, possibly to repay debts, or, to repair a damaged reputation, or, maybe for the "thrill" of it.

From http://selfhelpmagazine.com/articles/atd/gambrisk.html:

"Calculated risk takers use as much energy analyzing themselves as analyzing opportunity. In this way the realist is able to appraise the specifics of possible choices rather than be carried away by glamorous promises, inflated feelings, the desire to win a competition or seek revenge.

Actions taken on decisions made in the moment, like my leaping out of bed during the shake, may seem to be thoughtless impulsive acts. But what an action looks like is not a measure of its risk factor. "


"A gamble has a high probability of loss. A calculated risk has a much higher probability of a positive outcome. Knowing the difference is essential to our success.

To make successful decisions and take positive action we must be in the realistic present. Emotional decision making can be lethal when governed by unexamined personal weaknesses and wounds from childhood. Finding and resolving old patterns of emotional highs and lows increases our ability to make a calculated risk. Even if old patterns are not resolved, acknowledging them and setting them aside during decision making can create better chances for being a winner. "

Calculated Risk Taker, from http://selfhelpmagazine.com/articles/atd/gambrisk.html:

"Contains and manages emotions.
Is aware of irrational factors swaying a crowd.
Takes responsibility for results.
Does not waste time with what might have been.
Acknowledges personal fantasies and resolves them or disregards them.
Risks a tiny fraction of equity on any
individual choice (equity meaning time, money, relationship, self esteem, skill etc.).
Concentrates on a realistic long-term strategy.
Knows personal abilities and limitations.
Is hardworking and open to new ideas.
Stays emotionally even during wins and losses.
Easily resists risks that do not
fit within defined risk limitations.
Is open about risk taking.
Proceeds in a serious intellectual manner.
Stays alert to present trends.
Follows predetermined guidelines of safety.
Analyzes situation, observes own reactions and makes realistic plans. "


Gambler, from http://selfhelpmagazine.com/articles/atd/gambrisk.html:

"Looks for excitement and danger.
Jumps in with the crowd momentum, not wanting to be left out or left behind.
Blames others or luck for bad outcome.
Lingers over losing choices and wins not taken.
Is influenced by unacknowledged fantasies of what is possible.
Will risk more than can afford to lose.
Acts on impulsive decisions.
Is unaware of unconscious motivations.
Acts out of sense of superiority or magical thinking.
Gets high and feels powerful on a win. Gets low and feels worthless and small on a loss.
Lacks discipline and
invests on wishful fantasy rather than recognizes reality.
Hides losses and is secretive about taking chances.
Procrastinates (building up excitement levels).
Follows a favorite method no longer useful or relevant.
When losing will take increasingly bigger risks to catch up.
Looks for the one big win that will result in bliss."


.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

3 Comments:

  • Calculated risk takers tend to be successful/winners, while gamblers tend to be losers.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:58 PM  

  • David Morgan has turned bearish on silver. Jack Chan and Jeff Kern have turned bearish on gold.

    Gold/HUI/XAU experienced a very obvious major technical breakdown two weeks ago, it was a 5% follow through major sell signal.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:03 PM  

  • The gold Nazi cockroaches are going right where they belong, DOWN THE DRAIN!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:12 PM  

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