SPX (S & P 500) Strength Is Likely Early Tomorrow
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) strength is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, because, SPX completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern near session's end.
What I've been calling a big short term Wave 1 upcycle since 3-17 will now be called a monthly upcycle. Since entering Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle very early on 3-31 SPX (S & P 500) has done an up down up down pattern, and, appears to have entered Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The Elliott Wave count jives with today 4-2's bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +0.89% versus SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The Elliott Wave count also jives with today's wall of worry growth/very sharp rise in fear. VIX rose a very sharp +3.31% today/on 4-2 versus the S & P 500 falling a slight -0.19% on 4-2, which is a very sharp +3.12% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +3.12% = +3.31% + -0.19% = +3.12% rise in fear) that points to potentially sharp strength on Thursday 4-3.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Thursday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Thursday.
SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (HUI/gold since 4-1, the XAU entered Wave B on 3-20), following the week before last's huge very short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
If you're looking to exit gold/silver stock and/or metals positions, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that began on 4-1 for HUI/gold and on 3-20 for the XAU, will be an opportunity to do so.
When the final short term countertrend Wave B cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count) and today 4-2's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.00% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), it looks like there will be early weakness on Thursday 4-3, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. There will probably be very brief strength at the open/very early on, but, the tone early tomorrow is likely to be weakness.
I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX early tomorrow.
For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.00% versus the XAU today/on 4-2, was a very bullish +1.10% versus the XAU on 4-1, was a bearish -0.74% on 3-31, was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The rest of this post is old info, left in for reference purposes and for new readers.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Morons leaving phony comments (and most gold writers) don't even understand basic technical analysis.
Nearly all if not all gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice. Any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.
I constantly get bogus comments from morons saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff.
Try finding a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI very short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time the week before last, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
What I've been calling a big short term Wave 1 upcycle since 3-17 will now be called a monthly upcycle. Since entering Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle very early on 3-31 SPX (S & P 500) has done an up down up down pattern, and, appears to have entered Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The Elliott Wave count jives with today 4-2's bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +0.89% versus SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The Elliott Wave count also jives with today's wall of worry growth/very sharp rise in fear. VIX rose a very sharp +3.31% today/on 4-2 versus the S & P 500 falling a slight -0.19% on 4-2, which is a very sharp +3.12% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +3.12% = +3.31% + -0.19% = +3.12% rise in fear) that points to potentially sharp strength on Thursday 4-3.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Thursday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Thursday.
SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (HUI/gold since 4-1, the XAU entered Wave B on 3-20), following the week before last's huge very short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
If you're looking to exit gold/silver stock and/or metals positions, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that began on 4-1 for HUI/gold and on 3-20 for the XAU, will be an opportunity to do so.
When the final short term countertrend Wave B cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count) and today 4-2's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.00% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), it looks like there will be early weakness on Thursday 4-3, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. There will probably be very brief strength at the open/very early on, but, the tone early tomorrow is likely to be weakness.
I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX early tomorrow.
For the five day NEM Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.00% versus the XAU today/on 4-2, was a very bullish +1.10% versus the XAU on 4-1, was a bearish -0.74% on 3-31, was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The rest of this post is old info, left in for reference purposes and for new readers.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Morons leaving phony comments (and most gold writers) don't even understand basic technical analysis.
Nearly all if not all gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice. Any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.
I constantly get bogus comments from morons saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff.
Try finding a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI very short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time the week before last, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:41 PM
1 Comments:
Gold will not reach $1500+ for about 6-7+ years (very very unlikely that it will reach $1500 before then, one can only talk about likely scenarios).
First gold will fall to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since April 2001)
trendline at $500ish in the next 18months in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. Then in Wave 3 gold will reach $1500-1700 in 6-7+ years. The final Wave 5 Cyclical Bull is likely to be a relatively brief 18 monthish huge blowoff spike to $2000-2200ish in the year 2018 to 2020.
Ignore the desperate bumbling gold scam artists, whose house of cards has begun to collapse. Their BS is obvious to most anyway. They're being read by most of us as a curiosity.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:07 PM
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