Trade the Cycles

Thursday, April 10, 2008

SPX (S & P 500) Wave A Down Of Monthly Downcycle Since 4-7 Bottomed Yesterday

4-10 Synopsis:

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave A down of the monthly downcycle since 4-7 bottomed yesterday, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. NDX (NASDAQ 100) and RUT (Russell 2000) were also doing Wave A down of a monthly downcycle.

SPX (S & P 500) is either still in Wave 4 down or entered Wave 5 up shortly before session's end, of Wave B (began late yesterday) of the monthly downcycle since 4-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.

SPX has an up down up down pattern since late yesterday's Wave A cycle low. So, it looks like the countertrend Wave B upcycle (began late yesterday) of the monthly downcycle since 4-7 will peak (probably early) tomorrow. I'll look to trade the major averages ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM early tomorrow, and, I'll look to trade some puts.

The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.51% versus SPX today/on 4-10, was +0.24% versus SPX on 4-9, and, was +0.92% on 4-8.

The SPX wall of worry points to some potentially severe weakness tomorrow 4-11. VIX fell a very sharp -3.64% today/on 4-10 versus the S & P 500 rising a modest +0.45% on 4-10, which is a very sharp +3.19% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -3.19% = -3.64% + +0.45% = +3.19% rise in complacency) that points to some potentially severe weakness on Friday 4-11.

HUI's countertrend Wave B (began late Tuesday 4-8) of Wave 2 (began Monday 4-7) of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 4-1-08 peaked early today as expected. At session's open/early on it completed Wave 5 of the Wave B type move that began late Tuesday 4-8, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

After the Wave A type plunge that followed the Wave 5 spike at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, HUI did a countertrend Wave B type move (of Wave C of Wave 2 since 4-7) the rest of the session, that might have peaked shortly before session's end (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern intraday). I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. GDX has a downside gap from 4-2 at 46.39 that might get filled in the next day or two.

The very bearish short term NEM Lead Indicator, at +0.50% versus the XAU today/on 4-10, at -1.59% versus the XAU on 4-9 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), at +1.16% on 4-8, -0.62% on 4-7, -0.65% on 4-4, -0.60% on 4-3, -1.00% on 4-2, points to a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow.

End of the 4-10-08 Synopsis.

I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, with an entry point at 49.05 and an exit point at 48.7099. It was a 24 minute trade at 2:00ish EST.

I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, early tomorrow, and, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM, and, I might day trade some puts.

That's all for today, see the rest of the pertinent info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/spx-s-p-500-might-have-put-in-short_07.html.

.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

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7 Comments:

  • I got another bogus comment from a cockroach. Heh gold cockroaches, stop trying to scam the unsuspecting public or possibly end up in JAIL. You've been warned.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:38 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 1322.70 on 4-1, WMT (Walmart) created one at 52.68 on 4-1, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has one at 1781.93, and RUT (Russell 2000) has one at 687.97.

    So, the monthly cycle low (should occur early next week) targets are 1320ish for SPX, 52.50ish for WMT, 1780ish for NDX, and 687ish for RUT. Important cycle lows (and cycle highs) tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:12 PM  

  • Ask a gold pimp how massive asset (stocks, credit/debt instruments, real estate) deflation and a worldwide major economic downcycle is good for commodities. Plummeting stock markets and other markets/assets around the world are supposed to be inflationary? Forgetaboutit!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:18 PM  

  • The commodities bubble is also deflationary, in that it hurts individuals and businesses. Big rigs spend $1000+ (that's right) to fill up, mining firms energy expenses have skyrocketed, as have airlines obviously. Consumers are feeling the pinch along with many businesses.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:47 PM  

  • Send gold Nazi pump and dump scam artists to JAIL!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:35 AM  

  • Where would we be without the telephone (did Bell simply copy Meucci and get the US patent?), radio (Marconi), internal combustion engine, the microprocessor, ball bearings, barometer, electric battery, nuclear reactor, etc?


    Here we go. Inventions (you think Bell invented the telephone?):

    Nuclear Reactor Enrico Fermi 1942
    Thermometer Galileo Galilei 1593
    Parachute Leonardo da Vinci 1480
    Piano Bartolomeo Cristofori 1709
    Telephone Antonio Meucci 1871
    Wireless Telegraphy Guglielmo Marconi 1896
    Internal combustion engine Eugenio Barsanti 1854
    Liposuction Giorgio Fischer 1974
    Microprocessor Federico Faggin 1970-1971
    MPEG (Father of the MP3) Leonardo Chiariglione Started in 1988
    Nitroglycerin Ascanio Sobrero 1846
    Anemometer Leon Battista Alberti 1450
    Ball Bearings Leonardo da Vinci 16th Century
    Barometer Evangelista Torricelli 1643
    Bobbin Leonardo da Vinci 15th/16th Century
    Carbon Paper Pellegrino Turri 1806
    Cologne Johann Maria Farina 1709
    Condom Gabriele Fallopio 1564
    Double Entry Accounting Amatino Manucci 14th Century
    Trade the Cycles Market Timing System Guiseppe Ferrazzano 2003
    Electric Battery Alessandro Volta 1800
    Electromagnetic Seismograph Luigi Palmieri 1856
    Electroplating Luigi V. Brugnatelli 1805
    Espresso Machine Achille Gaggia 1946
    Eyeglasses Salvino Armati 1280
    Hydrofoil Enrico Forlanini 1900
    Hydrostatic Balance Galileo Galilei 1596?
    Ice Cream Cone Italo Marcioni 1896

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:01 AM  

  • I think the Russians have some guy who supposedly invented the telephone also. Meucci is probably the real inventor. He predates both by probably over 10 years, but, I'd have to research it and probably will.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:24 AM  

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