.....................Gold ETF (GLD) Analysis

GLD put in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 100.44 on 3-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. The cycle low at 83.57 on 5-1-08 was probably a Wave A minor intermediate term cycle low, meaning that it's probably Wave A down of a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market.

The monthly upcycle from 5-1-08 to yesterday 5-21-08 is probably the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle, which means that GLD is probably in a Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle now/since yesterday 5-21's cycle high (entered Wave C of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle yesterday 5-21).

Here's more bad news that supports the above Elliott Wave count discussion: GLD's monthly upcycle from 5-1-08 to yesterday 5-21-08 (probably the countertrend Wave B upcycle of a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle) has a failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, with Wave 4 bottoming below Wave 2 (which is obviously very bearish), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, which obviously supports the likely scenario that GLD is in a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle of a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market.

Also, the lowest consumer confidence in 28 years (since June 1980, when gold approached $500 after hitting the $875ish Secular Bull Market cycle high a few months before, see http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1982btm.gif), the severe real estate bust, tight mortgage lending environment and getting tighter, credit crisis (credit/debt instrument and financial stocks implosion), stock market bear market, etc are all obviously very deflationary.

.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

NEM XAU HUI