What Very Few If Any Other Gold Writers Understand
What very few other gold writers understand (or will admit and be honest about) is that gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
Cyclical Bear Markets in a Secular Bull Market are corrections from a generational very long term point of view. The fact that both gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market is strong evidence that they will happen again in this Secular Bull Market.
Both gold and silver are due for a Cyclical Bear Market, and, it fits with the current very deflationary credit crisis and real estate bust.
HUI/XAU/gold put in an intermediate term and probably a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI/gold and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle and gold has a large bearish spike on 3-17's candle.
Gold might put in a double top or even a modestly higher cycle high this year, but, basically a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun.
Probably over half of all gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bear Market right now, and, some of the ones that aren't might have been helped a lot by program buying. It would be interesting to see what % of gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market are also in indexes.
What can you say about people who think that a crashing real estate market, tight mortgage lending, crashing debt/credit instruments, stock market bear market, plummeting money market rates, weak retail sales, etc is an inflationary environment? See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/m3rapid-money-supply-growth-isnt.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Cyclical Bear Markets in a Secular Bull Market are corrections from a generational very long term point of view. The fact that both gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market is strong evidence that they will happen again in this Secular Bull Market.
Both gold and silver are due for a Cyclical Bear Market, and, it fits with the current very deflationary credit crisis and real estate bust.
HUI/XAU/gold put in an intermediate term and probably a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI/gold and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle and gold has a large bearish spike on 3-17's candle.
Gold might put in a double top or even a modestly higher cycle high this year, but, basically a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun.
Probably over half of all gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bear Market right now, and, some of the ones that aren't might have been helped a lot by program buying. It would be interesting to see what % of gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market are also in indexes.
What can you say about people who think that a crashing real estate market, tight mortgage lending, crashing debt/credit instruments, stock market bear market, plummeting money market rates, weak retail sales, etc is an inflationary environment? See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/m3rapid-money-supply-growth-isnt.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:21 AM
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