Why Most Gold Writers Can't Be Taken Seriously
In mid March when HUI/XAU crashed for about three days and their multi month trendlines broke down (5% major sell signal), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which was a very obvious technical breakdown, most gold writers remained bullish, in the "buy the dips" mode.
Any trader or investor worth his or her salt knew to at least turn cautious (expect a major downcycle/correction) after the multi month uptrend lines for HUI/XAU/gold broke down, especially given the huge spike move from 8-16-07 to mid March 2008 (look at any chart and huge spike moves should almost always be avoided by investors, and, even for a technical breakout, waiting for a sharp pullback usually makes sense). On this basis alone most gold writers can't be taken seriously and were exposed for what they are, rank amateurs or worse (frauds engaged in criminal deception for personal gain).
Many gold writers keep harping on the credit crisis/severe real estate bust/economic downcycle as if it's inflationary/good for gold. How crashing home prices, credit/debt instruments (some became illiquid altogether, a $330 Billion market did I know), stocks since mid/late last year, very tight lending, crashing money market rates, etc are supposed to be inflationary is more than beyond absurd, it's total la la land. That's where many gold/silver writers reside. Everything in their idiotic goofy corrupt world is viewed as bullish/favorable for gold/silver.
The argument that many gold/silver writers espouse is that rapid money supply growth will lead to "hyper inflation." The fact of the matter is that the rapid money supply growth isn't inflating the economy, as discussed many times before, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. The rapid money supply growth is in response to plainly obvious massive deflationary factors.
If gold was the safe haven panacea and "eighth wonder of the world" that many gold writers make it out to be it wouldn't be about where it was TWENTY EIGHT YEARS AGO. That's obviously NOT a hedge against inflation. Gold IS a hedge against inflationary economic upcycles, such as the real estate/too easy mortgage and retail credit boom from 2002 until early 2006.
My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Any trader or investor worth his or her salt knew to at least turn cautious (expect a major downcycle/correction) after the multi month uptrend lines for HUI/XAU/gold broke down, especially given the huge spike move from 8-16-07 to mid March 2008 (look at any chart and huge spike moves should almost always be avoided by investors, and, even for a technical breakout, waiting for a sharp pullback usually makes sense). On this basis alone most gold writers can't be taken seriously and were exposed for what they are, rank amateurs or worse (frauds engaged in criminal deception for personal gain).
Many gold writers keep harping on the credit crisis/severe real estate bust/economic downcycle as if it's inflationary/good for gold. How crashing home prices, credit/debt instruments (some became illiquid altogether, a $330 Billion market did I know), stocks since mid/late last year, very tight lending, crashing money market rates, etc are supposed to be inflationary is more than beyond absurd, it's total la la land. That's where many gold/silver writers reside. Everything in their idiotic goofy corrupt world is viewed as bullish/favorable for gold/silver.
The argument that many gold/silver writers espouse is that rapid money supply growth will lead to "hyper inflation." The fact of the matter is that the rapid money supply growth isn't inflating the economy, as discussed many times before, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/04/crashing-velocity-circulation-of-money.html. The rapid money supply growth is in response to plainly obvious massive deflationary factors.
If gold was the safe haven panacea and "eighth wonder of the world" that many gold writers make it out to be it wouldn't be about where it was TWENTY EIGHT YEARS AGO. That's obviously NOT a hedge against inflation. Gold IS a hedge against inflationary economic upcycles, such as the real estate/too easy mortgage and retail credit boom from 2002 until early 2006.
My previous 18 month $500-550 cycle low target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is probably too optimistic. Probably 2-3 years and $450-500 is more realistic, given the extremely deflationary environment.
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:09 AM
3 Comments:
The gold cockroaches are the laughingstocks of the Yahoo message boards. They're being shredded alive. LFMFAO!
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:19 AM
Think any of the gold pimps will point out the fact that the US Dollar bottomed at 70.70 on 3-17-08, the same day that gold peaked at $1033.90?
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:51 AM
I think it should be LMFAO in the first comment. Except for the gold pimps, I think most of you figured it out. In case you don't know it's "laugh my f...ing ass off."
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:57 PM
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