.......M3/Rapid Money Supply Growth Isn't Inflating The US Economy (Obviously)
The gold/commodity "pundits" keep discussing rapid money supply growth, without realizing that the velocity (circulation) of money (= GDP/M3) is plunging, see http://www.bullandbearwise.com/VelocityChart.asp, which means obviously that M3 isn't inflating the US economy.
The rapid money supply growth is an attempt to ward off a severe recession, due to the deflationary tsunami created by the credit crisis and real estate bust.
What can you say about people who think that a crashing real estate market, tight mortgage lending, crashing debt/credit instruments, stock market bear market, plummeting money market rates, weak retail sales, etc is an inflationary environment? Some "propaganda writers" aren't smart enough (or have a very low opinion of their readers) to realize that most people know they're full of BS. Many people like myself read some of them out of curiosity.
In the 1980s Japan was supposed to pass the US, then their economy/stock market peaked/went bust in 1989, and, now the Nikkei stock index is about ONE THIRD of it's 1989 cycle high, 19 years later. Invest for the long term? Hell no! Got cycles? Hell yes!
By the way the S & P 500 (SPX) peaked in March 2000 at 1552.87 (Secular Bull Market cycle high), and, it peaked at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 (Cyclical Bull Market cycle high). In a little over seven and a half years SPX went up LESS THAN TWO PERCENT. Invest for the long term? Hell no! Got cycles? Hell yes!
A 60-70+ year SPX Bull Market appears to have peaked and is now probably in a multi decade Secular (15-20+ years) and maybe much longer Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. The 10-11-07 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 appears to be a rollover (massive Fed credit last year probably caused the rollover action due to strong index related program buying, versus 10-11-07 being a countertrend Wave B cycle high) modestly higher bearish double top with the March 2000 cycle high at 1552.87.
Now the talk is of the Chinese. From what I've read their lending practices almost make the US's look astute/wise. Their runaway poorly managed growth and lending practices means that they're likely to have and might already be in a huge economic bust/downcycle, similar to or maybe even much worse than Japan's since 1989.
The Shanghai Index fell nearly -50% from it's October 2007 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high to it's recent Wave A type cycle low. The Chinese management of their growth/economy is probably much worse than the bumbling US government's and Federal Reserve's (not technically part of the US government I don't think).
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
The rapid money supply growth is an attempt to ward off a severe recession, due to the deflationary tsunami created by the credit crisis and real estate bust.
What can you say about people who think that a crashing real estate market, tight mortgage lending, crashing debt/credit instruments, stock market bear market, plummeting money market rates, weak retail sales, etc is an inflationary environment? Some "propaganda writers" aren't smart enough (or have a very low opinion of their readers) to realize that most people know they're full of BS. Many people like myself read some of them out of curiosity.
In the 1980s Japan was supposed to pass the US, then their economy/stock market peaked/went bust in 1989, and, now the Nikkei stock index is about ONE THIRD of it's 1989 cycle high, 19 years later. Invest for the long term? Hell no! Got cycles? Hell yes!
By the way the S & P 500 (SPX) peaked in March 2000 at 1552.87 (Secular Bull Market cycle high), and, it peaked at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 (Cyclical Bull Market cycle high). In a little over seven and a half years SPX went up LESS THAN TWO PERCENT. Invest for the long term? Hell no! Got cycles? Hell yes!
A 60-70+ year SPX Bull Market appears to have peaked and is now probably in a multi decade Secular (15-20+ years) and maybe much longer Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. The 10-11-07 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 appears to be a rollover (massive Fed credit last year probably caused the rollover action due to strong index related program buying, versus 10-11-07 being a countertrend Wave B cycle high) modestly higher bearish double top with the March 2000 cycle high at 1552.87.
Now the talk is of the Chinese. From what I've read their lending practices almost make the US's look astute/wise. Their runaway poorly managed growth and lending practices means that they're likely to have and might already be in a huge economic bust/downcycle, similar to or maybe even much worse than Japan's since 1989.
The Shanghai Index fell nearly -50% from it's October 2007 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high to it's recent Wave A type cycle low. The Chinese management of their growth/economy is probably much worse than the bumbling US government's and Federal Reserve's (not technically part of the US government I don't think).
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:09 PM
1 Comments:
Gold is about where it was 28 years ago. Some hedge against inflation. This performance fits well with the clowns and frauds who mindlessly try to pump gold.
Gold begs to be traded. Timed properly gold can be great. Investors should never chase huge spike moves, such as gold's from 8-16-07 to 3-17-08. Cycles rule.
Gold IS however a hedge against inflationary economic upcycles, such as the real estate/easy mortgage boom from 2002until early 2006. Easy retail credit (credit card boom, auto loans with good terms and incentives, 0% financing or other favorable terms for electronics, furniture, etc) was another major factor from 2002 until early 2006.
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Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:56 AM
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