"Housing data mixed, consumer confidence slumps"
"Housing data mixed, consumer confidence slumps," see http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080516/bs_nm/usa_economy_housing_dc_3.
"Ground-breaking on single-family homes in the United States in April dropped to the slowest pace since 1991 while consumer confidence hit a 28-year trough, showing the economy still on shaky ground."
What's interesting about this is that 28 years ago (1980), when consumer confidence was very low as it is now, is when gold and silver put in a Secular Generational Bull Market cycle high.
When consumer confidence is very low, then obviously, as I've been discussing lately, the Velocity (circulation) of money (= GDP/M3, see http://www.bullandbearwise.com/VelocityChart.asp) will be very low, which is obviously very deflationary (is more than offsetting rapid money supply growth, as can be seen at the link above).
The rapid money supply growth simply isn't inflating the economy, as many gold writers are claiming (some are talking about hyper inflation. What's hyper is the hot air and nonsense generated from too many clueless deluded goofballs).
Gold and silver probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high (gold on 3-17-08) two months ago, in a similar very deflationary environment to 28 years ago, when a Secular Generational Bull Market cycle high occurred, and, gold/silver soon fell dramatically (gold fell -60%ish in about two years time) due to the very deflationary environment at that time, see http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1982btm.gif.
It won't be surprising if gold bottoms at $450-500 in the next 18 months or so (from 3-17-08), given the very deflationary environment.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
"Ground-breaking on single-family homes in the United States in April dropped to the slowest pace since 1991 while consumer confidence hit a 28-year trough, showing the economy still on shaky ground."
What's interesting about this is that 28 years ago (1980), when consumer confidence was very low as it is now, is when gold and silver put in a Secular Generational Bull Market cycle high.
When consumer confidence is very low, then obviously, as I've been discussing lately, the Velocity (circulation) of money (= GDP/M3, see http://www.bullandbearwise.com/VelocityChart.asp) will be very low, which is obviously very deflationary (is more than offsetting rapid money supply growth, as can be seen at the link above).
The rapid money supply growth simply isn't inflating the economy, as many gold writers are claiming (some are talking about hyper inflation. What's hyper is the hot air and nonsense generated from too many clueless deluded goofballs).
Gold and silver probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high (gold on 3-17-08) two months ago, in a similar very deflationary environment to 28 years ago, when a Secular Generational Bull Market cycle high occurred, and, gold/silver soon fell dramatically (gold fell -60%ish in about two years time) due to the very deflationary environment at that time, see http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1982btm.gif.
It won't be surprising if gold bottoms at $450-500 in the next 18 months or so (from 3-17-08), given the very deflationary environment.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:39 PM
2 Comments:
"The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' preliminary index of confidence fell to 59.5 in May, the lowest since June 1980. In April it was at 62.6."
By June 1980 gold had already declined substantially, as gold has recently since 3-17-08. The current picture fits well with 28 years ago, and, points to 3-17-08 being a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high ($1033.90).
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:37 PM
A mining stock that probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in March is LMC, Lundin Mining Corp, which might be a base metals miner. Not a recommendation, I'm just pointing out a miner that looks bullish now.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:55 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home