The Most Heavily Shorted Gold Stock Is RGLD

The most heavily shorted gold stock, Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD), has outperformed HUI/NEM/XAU by a wide margin since mid June, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=RGLD&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Enter NEM, ^HUI, or ^XAU to see their charts.

HUI/NEM/XAU all put in lower cycle highs in early December than their September cycle highs, while RGLD put in a cycle high in early December above it's September cycle high, and, it resumed an uptrend shortly thereafter and has substantially exceeded it's early December cycle high. Some of this of course was short covering, see http://yahoo.investor.reuters.com/IndustrySnapshot.aspx?ord=desc&industry=GLDSLV&orderby=2&target=indcmprank%2findview11. The point is, did shorts destroy the most heavily shorted gold stock??? NO, it dramatically outperformed HUI/NEM/XAU since mid June. So much for the conspiracy theories.

The great thing about index fund program trading is that it makes major (even minor is very difficult) manipulation basically impossible, even by very large traders. Who can overcome 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE? RGLD is in many indices, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ct?s=RGLD, which makes manipulation, even for a few hours, almost impossible.

The more indices a gold/silver stock is in, the less likely any manipulation theory has ANY value. Practically/maybe none have any significant truth/value to them. Even for gold/silver stocks that aren't in indices, they are still affected by mutual fund activity in most/many cases and by gold/silver stock market direction.

The major "manipulation" is by the Federal Reserve Bank, with the "liquidity" (credit) it provides to the "system" (index fund program traders).

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Points Mostly To Weakness In Gold Next Week

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points mostly to weakness in gold next week, because the non contrarian/savvy gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short. They engaged in significant long liquidation and significant short selling, see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

The good news is that the contrarian/clueless gold Speculators also traded net short, a rare case where they traded in the same direction as the Commercial Traders on a net basis, but, the difference being they made a significant long trade while the Commercial Traders engaged in significant long liquidation. The Speculators significant long trade points to some gold weakness next week, but, the fact that they traded net short points to some strength.

The silver COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is much more bullish than gold, since the non contrarian/savvy silver Commercial Traders traded substantially net long versus the contrarian/clueless silver Speculators trading substantially net short, see first data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. However, the fact that the silver Commercial Traders engaged in significant long liquidation is a bearish sign, so, the silver COT data isn't that bullish, it's just much more bullish than gold's is.

The US Dollar COT is basically neutral in terms of the latest changes, but, the non contrarian/savvy US Dollar Commercial Traders are massively net long and the contrarian/clueless US Dollar Speculators are massively net short, which points to substantial US Dollar strength the next few weeks, see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.

The previous post which contains my 2007 prediction is at : http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/12/huixau-should-put-in-very-short-term.html.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU Should Put In A Very Short Term Wave 5 Cycle High

HUI/XAU should put in a Wave 5 cycle high for the Wave B of Wave A upcycle (since last Friday) some time today or on Wednesday (on Tuesday the market is closed in remembrance of Gerald R. Ford). HUI/XAU's very short term Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs occurred early on both Tuesday and Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. The very short term Wave 5 cycle high will probably be only modestly higher than the Wave 3 one that occurred early yesterday, in other words, it'll probably occur in rollover mode.

NEM's short term/Wave B of Wave A cycle high (minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06) occurred on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. NEM is leading as usual, in this case to the downside.

US markets will be closed on Tuesday in remembrance of Gerald R. Ford (closed Monday for New Years Day). Canadian markets will reopen on Tuesday.

To all my readers around the world, may the force be with us all in 2007 and God Bless you. Ciao. Joe Ferrazzano

Here's my 2007 prediction:

Gold, HUI, XAU will finish their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06), and, will hit their primary multi year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines early in 2007, at $525-550ish for gold, at 200-220 for HUI (could turn up which is why there's a wide range), and at 85-90 for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Reliable lead indicator NEM already bottomed at 39.84 on 10-4-06 and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. After gold, HUI, XAU bottom in early 2007, they should be in a 5-7 year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, and, "Trade the Cycles" (therefore I) will turn bullish.

Early 2007 will be a "disaster" (great buying opportunity if you get cycles) for not only gold, HUI, XAU, but, for probably most sectors, since SPX (S & P 500) appears to have put in a major intermediate term cycle high (potentially a very important Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since October 2002) for the cycle since mid June.

SPX probably peaked on 12-18-06, and, put in a bearish double top cycle high with 12-17-06's cycle high. Substantial SPX (S & P 500) weakness will lead to massive index fund program selling that will drive gold, HUI, XAU down to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines early in 2007. Most sectors will get hammered. This concludes my 2007 prediction.

Many gold "gurus" (jackass is usually a better word when it comes to market timing) talk about the demise of the major averages as being good for gold, HUI, XAU. It IS on a Secular/very long term 15-20 year basis, BUT, near term index fund program selling will crush gold, HUI, XAU when SPX declines substantially.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.70% versus the XAU on 12-28, was a very bearish -1.35% on 12-27, was -0.28% on 12-26, -0.35% on 12-22, +0.30% on 12-21, -0.76% on 12-20, -1.07% on 12-19, and was -0.31% on 12-18. The NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish again on 12-18, which is when SPX (S & P 500) peaked. This is no surprise since NEM is a component of SPX, and, a big part of the reason why it's such a great lead indicator is due to it being in the S & P 500, because index fund program trading is such a huge factor (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE) that causes one to have to time SPX along with HUI/NEM/XAU.

The WMT lead indicator was a modestly bearish -0.18% versus SPX on 12-28. A very bearish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at -0.59% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday (since WMT/SPX are much less volatile than HUI/NEM/XAU -0.59% is very bearish as opposed to bearish) correctly pointed to weakness being the tone yesterday (downtrend after the spike at the open) for HUI/NEM/XAU, and, correctly pointed to some weakness in SPX, that probably would have been much worse if it wasn't for a massive $18.25 Billion in Fed Credit yesterday, on top of massive Fed Credit since 12-14.

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

Tuesday's very bullish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) correctly portended significant SPX strength on Wednesday, which propped up HUI/NEM/XAU due to index fund program buying. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator will probably help to finetune the NEM Lead Indicator for very short term timing, along with Elliott Wave of course.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Trended Down The Entire Session

Reliable lead indicator NEM trended down the entire session (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and really HUI/XAU did also (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), because they failed to exceed the spikes that occurred at the open.

NEM put in a likely very short term Wave B cycle high early today versus the Wave B of Wave A cycle high that occurred early on Tuesday. NEM did a very anemic Wave B of Wave A (since putting in minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-8) that lasted less than a session (late Friday until Early Tuesday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, so, NEM is leading to the downside as usual.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.70% versus the XAU today/on 12-28, was a very bearish -1.35% on 12-27, was -0.28% on 12-26, -0.35% on 12-22, +0.30% on 12-21, -0.76% on 12-20, -1.07% on 12-19, and was -0.31% on 12-18. The NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish again on 12-18, which is when SPX (S & P 500) peaked. This is no surprise since NEM is a component of SPX, and, a big part of the reason why it's such a great lead indicator is due to it being in the S & P 500, because index fund program trading is such a huge factor (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE) that causes one to have to time SPX along with HUI/NEM/XAU.

HUI/XAU will probably spike early tomorrow and put in a Wave 5 cycle high for the Wave B of Wave A upcycle since last Friday.

The WMT lead indicator was a modestly bearish -0.18% versus SPX today/on 12-28. A very bearish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at -0.59% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday (since WMT/SPX are much less volatile than HUI/NEM/XAU -0.59% is very bearish as opposed to bearish) correctly pointed to weakness being the tone today (downtrend after the spike at the open) for HUI/NEM/XAU, and, correctly pointed to some weakness in SPX, that probably would have been much worse if it wasn't for a massive $18.25 Billion in Fed Credit today, on top of massive Fed Credit since 12-14.

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

Tuesday's very bullish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) correctly portended significant SPX strength yesterday, which propped up HUI/NEM/XAU due to index fund program buying. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator will probably help to finetune the NEM Lead Indicator for very short term timing, along with Elliott Wave of course.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

One Must Understand Cycles To Time The Market And Protect Your Future

There are gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market now, like reliable lead indicator NEM since 10-4-06's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CDE&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, since May 2005.

CDE did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market, with Wave 1 peaking in mid 2002, Wave 3 peaking in late 2003, and, Wave 5/CDE's Cyclical Bull Market peaked in early 2004. CDE did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that bottomed in May (looks like on the chart) 2005, so, CDE is in an Elliott Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

Using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps one would have known to get out of CDE in Wave 5, and, Wave 5 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, one could have gotten out close to the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high.

Notice in chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html that the Trade the Cycles approach nailed HUI's minor intermediate term cycle high, with a 2% sell signal occurring only two days (12-7) after the minor intermediate term cycle high (12-5), and, the trendline broke down the day after that cycle high, so, you might have sold the day after that cycle high, since you obviously don't have to wait for the 2% sell signal.

Without using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps you won't know when to sell or when to buy. This is why I haven't seen any other investment (let alone gold) writer who can consistently time the market. Most/nearly all of the gold writers I occasionally (more like quick glance and I get annoyed) read are almost always wrong, they can't even inconsistently time the market. They almost always get more bullish near cycle highs and more bearish or cautious near cycle lows.

The many clueless gold writers will be bullish years after the HUI/NEM/XAU Secular Bull Market peaks, because they don't understand cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps. HUI's dramatic 1000%+ rise (It rose more than a factor of 10, from 35ish to 401.69 on 5-11-06) in the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from November 2000 until May 11, 2006 has rendered the vast majority of gold writers' brains useless, due to an overdose of complacency. The vast majority of gold writers have become very complacent/soft. They didn't learn much from the bubble of 1999/2000 in the major averages (A very long term upcycle peaking for the NASDAQ and S & P 500).

If you don't have a healthy respect for the markets they WILL crush you many times over. Two vicious declines so far this year (May 11 until June 13 and early September until October 4) still hasn't shaken the extreme complacency out of most gold writers.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX Weakness/Downtrend Occurred Early Today As Expected

HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX weakness occurred early today as expected, however, HUI/NEM/XAU spiked briefly at the open as opposed to the expected plunge based on my NEM Elliott Wave count. Since the expected plunge occurred soon after the spike at the open there wasn't a drastic difference in what I expected, but read on. The lesson learned is to take a good look at all three from an Elliott Wave perspective (HUI/NEM/XAU) and not just NEM.

HUI/NEM/XAU are experiencing a modest Wave B of Wave A rebound (began last Friday) before resuming the downside gap filling action discussed in recent days. HUI/NEM/XAU are doing a Wave B of Wave A move since putting in minor intermediate term cycle highs on 12-5 (HUI/XAU)/12-8 (NEM), in which NEM appears to have peaked early on Tuesday (see 5 day NEM chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), while HUI/XAU are in Wave 4 down of the Wave B of Wave A move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI has shorter Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle patterns leading up to the Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs that occurred early on Tuesday and early today.

What I missed yesterday was that HUI/XAU did an Elliott Wave 1234 pattern since late Tuesday and put in a Wave 5 spike at today's open, which completed Wave 3 of the Wave B of Wave A upcycle since Friday (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==). My count was based on reliable lead indicator NEM, which appeared to put in a very short term Wave B cycle high early yesterday, but probably did so early today. If I had taken a good hard look at HUI/XAU's Elliott Wave yesterday I would have concluded that early "strength" (at least a brief spike) was likely today. The NEM and WMT Lead Indicators correctly pointed to weakness/a downtrend being today's tone.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.35% versus the XAU yesterday, which, combined with a very bearish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at -0.59% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday (since WMT/SPX are much less volatile than HUI/NEM/XAU -0.59% is very bearish as opposed to bearish), points to potentially severe weakness today for HUI/NEM/XAU, and, points to significant weakness in SPX.

Tuesday's very bullish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) correctly portended significant SPX strength yesterday, which propped up HUI/NEM/XAU due to index fund program buying. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator will probably help to finetune the NEM Lead Indicator for very short term timing, along with Elliott Wave of course.

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -1.35% Versus The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.35% versus the XAU today, which, combined with a very bearish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at
-0.59% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today (since WMT/SPX are much less volatile than HUI/NEM/XAU -0.59% is very bearish as opposed to bearish), points to potentially severe weakness tomorrow for HUI/NEM/XAU, and, points to significant weakness in SPX.

Yesterday's very bullish WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator at +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) correctly portended significant SPX strength today, which propped up HUI/NEM/XAU due to index fund program buying. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator will probably help to finetune the NEM Lead Indicator for very short term timing, along with Elliott Wave of course.

Reliable lead indicator NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle from Friday until early yesterday, then did a sharp Wave A down followed by a modest Wave B up that peaked early today, and, was in Wave C down at session's end (see 5 day NEM chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), which points to weakness in HUI/NEM/XAU early tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish NEM and WMT Lead Indicators.

Today's previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/12/early-strengthvery-short-term-wave-b-as.html.

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Early Strength/Very Short Term Wave B As Expected

HUI/NEM/XAU completed a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle (began on Friday) yesterday, then did a Wave A down (sharp drop is a bearish sign) and were early in Wave B up at session's end, which correctly pointed to early strength today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI/NEM/XAU are in a very short term Wave C downcycle, in which the short term downside gap filling action discussed in recent days should be completed.

It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 45.17 (created today), 45.02 (filled), 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 139.34 (created today), 138.49, 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.

HUI/NEM/XAU rallied toward the top of their downtrending channels yesterday. HUI has a linear downtrending channel since hitting a minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-5-06, while the NEM dominated XAU recently turned down some, which means it's weakness has increased.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.70% versus the XAU early today, was a modestly bearish -0.28% versus the XAU yesterday after being a modestly bearish -0.35% on 12-22.

The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday after being a modestly bullish +0.16% on 12-22, which points to SPX/HUI/NEM/XAU strength after completing the downside gap filling action. WMT appears to be a great lead indicator for SPX (S & P 500), and, therefore also HUI/NEM/XAU, because SPX is the lead index due to program trading, which is 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and 70% of the dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading).

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 45.02 Today

NEM filled it's downside gap from today's open at 45.02, but, the XAU didn't fill today's downside gap at 138.48. NEM led, what else is new?

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.28% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.35% on 12-22, and, a strong close by the US Dollar near it's session cycle high today at 83.82 (up +0.15) points to HUI/NEM/XAU weakness tomorrow after likely early strength.

HUI/NEM/XAU completed a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle (began on Friday) today, then did a Wave A down (sharp drop is a bearish sign) and appeared to be early in Wave B up at session's end, which points to early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.

HUI/NEM/XAU rallied toward the top of their downtrending channels today. HUI has a linear downtrending channel since hitting a minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-5-06, while the NEM dominated XAU recently turned down some, which means it's weakness has increased.

The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today after being a modestly bullish +0.16% on 12-22, which points to SPX/HUI/NEM/XAU strength after completing the downside gap filling action. WMT appears to be a great lead indicator for SPX (S & P 500), and, therefore also HUI/NEM/XAU, because SPX is the lead index due to program trading, which is 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and 70% of the dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading).

It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 138.49, 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.

Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.............The Tsunami That Is Program Trading

An early spike by SPX (S & P 500) spiked HUI/NEM/XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. Notice that the same thing happened a week ago on the 19th, and, also on the 20th when HUI's modest spike lagged SPX's some. Due to program trading one must time SPX as well as HUI/NEM/XAU.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a downside gap from today's open at 45.02 and the XAU has a downside gap from today's open at 138.49. Today's early strength was a third/Wave 5 upcycle of the very short term upcycle that began on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern that began on Friday.

It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 45.02, 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 138.49, 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.

A number of gold/silver writers make a habit of discussing "manipulation" of gold (and therefore gold stocks) despite the fact that gold did 30-35% each year in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006. If you had an investment that AVERAGED 30-35% each year for slightly over FIVE years would you be screaming "manipulation" on a regular basis? The fact of the matter is that there is MUCH MORE positive "manipulation" in the form of Fed Credit that fuels massive program trading, which accounts for 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and probably 70% or more of the daily dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading) on the NYSE. Gold and silver are now securitized in the form of Exchange Traded Mutual Funds (ETFs) now (GLD and IAU are two gold ETFs and SLV is a silver ETF).

In the five day HUI vs SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see how SPX buying or selling has a major impact on HUI, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=%5Ehui. In the five year HUI vs SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX weakness in mid 2002 and early 2003 led to HUI weakness (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=%5EGSPC). Then substantial SPX strength during most of 2003 led to (was a major/huge factor, HUI was in the strong part of a Wave 3 long term upcycle) a great upcycle in HUI. In May 2004 SPX and HUI both experienced substantial corrections. In May/part of June this year SPX and HUI both experienced substantial corrections. In early September of this year the worst part of HUI's vicious correction from early September until October 4 occurred during significant short term SPX weakness thanks to program selling.

Most gold/silver stocks follow SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=RGLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. One can see that RGLD spiked early today and early on the 19th (along with SPX) due to program trading. On a given day might a big short seller weaken a stock? Maybe. But, he has to cover at some point, possibly when program trading leads to a big RGLD spike. Is that short covering (and how about program trading which is HUGE) positive manipulation???

The fact is that program trading is such a huge factor (accounts for 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and probably 70% or more of the daily dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading) on the NYSE) that manipulation of a stock for even a few days let alone weeks is highly unlikely.

Plus, short selling is LEGAL and simply isn't manipulation any more than going long a stock is upside manipulation. Trading ISN'T manipulation it's part of a free market system. The guys that are constantly talking about manipulation of gold and some gold stocks generally are out to lunch (in some cases literally in the Twilight Zone) and can't time the market to save their lives. They need something to blame for their constant failures.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Gold COT Data Points To Some Significant Weakness This Week

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to some significant weakness this week, since the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an unusually large (> 10%) addition to their long position, which makes them short term contrarian, while the contrarian/clueless Speculators engaged in what borders on an unusually large (> 10%) degree of long liquidation, see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, which makes them short term non contrarian. This jives with the expected scenario in which NEM will fill it's downside gap at 44.03 and the XAU will fill it's downside gap at 132.67, then an important short term cycle low should occur (read on).

Gaps often help a great deal with market timing since most get filled (breakaway gaps provide insight obviously as well), and, since clusters of gaps tend to get filled during the same upcycle or downcycle, with important cycle lows/highs often occurring after a cluster of gaps get filled, great insight into when cycle lows/highs will occur can be gleaned from when a cluster of gaps gets filled. NEM has/had downside gaps at 45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU has/had downside gaps at 138.37 (filled),132.67.

It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.

HUI/XAU are in a major downcycle (Wave C of Wave C of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) since putting in minor intermediate term cycle highs on 12-5-06, so, this upcoming cycle low may just be Wave A of Wave A NOT the entire Wave A.

In the case of HUI/XAU it's impossible to tell whether it's the entire Wave A or Wave A OF Wave A, but, in NEM's case it's very likely that Wave A will bottom after it's downside gap at 44.03 gets filled. After that a substantial short term upcycle (NEM's Wave B of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06) is likely based on the COT data.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.................XAU Options Traders Don't Get It

XAU options traders have been very complacent since the XAU hit a minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-5-06 (see charts 1 and 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html that show HUI which also peaked on 12-5-06). Even most good traders don't understand what's going on now. Here's the XAU Put/Call Ratio data:

0.74823 on 12-22, 0.78590 on 12-21, 0.78619 on 12-20, 0.82153 on 12-19, 0.75789 on 12-18, 0.63657 on 12-15 (January), 0.99706 on 12-15 (December expired), 0.97423 on 12-14, 0.97093 on 12-13, 0.97321 on 12-12, 0.95966 on 12-11, 0.98969 on 12-8, 1.00086 on 12-7, 1.00627 on 12-6, 0.97946 on 12-5.

Since 12-5-06 the XAU Put/Call Ratio has fallen from 0.97946 to 0.74823 on 12-22-06, despite a substantial decline in the XAU, which is obviously a very bearish sign. One wants to see a GREATER percentage RISE in the XAU Put/Call Ratio than the XAU's decline, which would indicate that fear is creeping into the XAU, but, the XAU Put/Call Ratio has fallen as if the XAU was rising, which is a very bad/bearish sign.

XAU Implied Volatility tells a similar story, with weakness meaning that the sum of the XAU's and XAU Implied Volatility's percentage changes was negative (complacency crept in) and strength means that fear crept in (the sum was positive):

26.200 on 12-22 weakness (portends some significant weakness on Tuesday 12-26), 26.450 on 12-21 weakness, 26.415 on 12-20 weakness, 26.190 on 12-19 weakness, 27.120 on 12-18 severe weakness, 28.240 on 12-15 weakness, 28.895 on 12-14 weakness, 30.175 on 12-13 weakness, 31.010 on 12-12 weakness, 31.035 on 12-11 strength, 30.690 on 12-8 weakness, 30.385 on 12-7 weakness, 31.285 on 12-6 weakness, 31.230 on 12-5 weakness.

This extreme complacency jives with the expected scenario that HUI/XAU will literally crash in the next 3-6 weeks (because they're in Wave C of Wave C of a Cyclical Bear Market) and decline to their primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines in effect since November (HUI)/October (XAU) 2000 (see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ), and, conclude the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 5-11-06.

Here's some great news, HUI/XAU's Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market will probably last 6-7 years, since Elliott Wave 1 lasted 5.5 years and Wave 3 tends to be longer and stronger than Wave 1. Upcycles tend to increase over time, but often will weaken/flatten out/roll over as they peak.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 44.88 Today

NEM filled it's downside gap at 44.88 today. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.35% versus the XAU today, and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.16% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today. A weak close by SPX (S & P 500) today points to early HUI/NEM/XAU weakness on Tuesday due to program selling.

A strong close by the US Dollar near it's session cycle high today at 83.67 up +0.41, a modestly bearish NEM Lead Indicator today (-0.35% versus the XAU), and, a bearish WMT (Walmart) I Watch today (see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt), since the non contrarian/savvy institutional traders showed strong sell interest today, also point to HUI/NEM/XAU weakness early on Tuesday. WMT appears to be a great lead indicator for SPX (S & P 500), and, therefore also HUI/NEM/XAU, because SPX is the lead index due to program trading, which is 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and 70% of the dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading).

The gold manipulation theories are 95%+ nonsense, since gold follows SPX along with HUI/NEM/XAU due to program trading, though the primary cycles are vastly different. Gold is securitized in ETFs now (GLD and IAU), so, gold is directly affected by program trading since it's traded like a stock.

Practically none of the manipulation theories about gold or specific gold stocks have any value (if they do it's probably a very minor factor), because program trading makes gold and nearly all gold stocks subject to it's powerful Tsunami effect, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Are there traders with enough clout to buck 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE??? Gold averaged 30-35% each year in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, which is an extremely high rate of return. The reason why so many gold/silver writers discuss "manipulation" is probably to have an excuse when things don't go as expected, which is usually very often. Why should anyone invest in a suppressed market if it was the case??? Many gold/silver writers need to either get a clue or RETIRE.

NEM has downside gaps at 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU has a downside gap at 132.67.

In the next few sessions NEM's downside gap at 44.03 may get filled and the XAU's downside gap at 132.67 may get filled. There may be a substantial bounce (Possibly Wave B of the vicious HUI/XAU downcycle or Wave B of Wave A) after that happens, but, I'll assess the situation once those gaps get filled.

Since SPX and WMT are less volatile than NEM/XAU a Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at -0.25% or more is clearly bearish, whereas an NEM Lead Indicator at -0.50% or more is clearly bearish.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few sessions may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Modestly Bullish +0.30% Versus The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.30% versus the XAU today, and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.02% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today. The XAU filled it's downside gap at 138.37 today. NEM has downside gaps at 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU has a downside gap at 132.67.

In the next few days NEM's downside gaps at 44.88 and 44.03 may get filled and the XAU's downside gap at 132.67 may get filled. There may be a substantial bounce (Possibly Wave B of the vicious HUI/XAU downcycle) after that happens, but, I'll assess the situation once those gaps get filled.

Since SPX and WMT are less volatile than NEM/XAU a Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at -0.25% or more is clearly bearish, whereas an NEM Lead Indicator at -0.50% or more is clearly bearish.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been mostly bearish the past four days at +0.30% versus the XAU today/on 12-21, -0.76% versus the XAU on 12-20, -1.07% on 12-19, and -0.31% on 12-18, which points to potentially severe weakness the next few sessions.

NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. The next few days may bring brutal declines. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.

HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.

HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU