One Must Understand Cycles To Time The Market And Protect Your Future
There are gold/silver stocks that are in a Cyclical Bull Market now, like reliable lead indicator NEM since 10-4-06's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CDE&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, since May 2005.
CDE did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market, with Wave 1 peaking in mid 2002, Wave 3 peaking in late 2003, and, Wave 5/CDE's Cyclical Bull Market peaked in early 2004. CDE did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that bottomed in May (looks like on the chart) 2005, so, CDE is in an Elliott Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
Using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps one would have known to get out of CDE in Wave 5, and, Wave 5 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, one could have gotten out close to the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high.
Notice in chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html that the Trade the Cycles approach nailed HUI's minor intermediate term cycle high, with a 2% sell signal occurring only two days (12-7) after the minor intermediate term cycle high (12-5), and, the trendline broke down the day after that cycle high, so, you might have sold the day after that cycle high, since you obviously don't have to wait for the 2% sell signal.
Without using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps you won't know when to sell or when to buy. This is why I haven't seen any other investment (let alone gold) writer who can consistently time the market. Most/nearly all of the gold writers I occasionally (more like quick glance and I get annoyed) read are almost always wrong, they can't even inconsistently time the market. They almost always get more bullish near cycle highs and more bearish or cautious near cycle lows.
The many clueless gold writers will be bullish years after the HUI/NEM/XAU Secular Bull Market peaks, because they don't understand cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps. HUI's dramatic 1000%+ rise (It rose more than a factor of 10, from 35ish to 401.69 on 5-11-06) in the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from November 2000 until May 11, 2006 has rendered the vast majority of gold writers' brains useless, due to an overdose of complacency. The vast majority of gold writers have become very complacent/soft. They didn't learn much from the bubble of 1999/2000 in the major averages (A very long term upcycle peaking for the NASDAQ and S & P 500).
If you don't have a healthy respect for the markets they WILL crush you many times over. Two vicious declines so far this year (May 11 until June 13 and early September until October 4) still hasn't shaken the extreme complacency out of most gold writers.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
CDE did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market, with Wave 1 peaking in mid 2002, Wave 3 peaking in late 2003, and, Wave 5/CDE's Cyclical Bull Market peaked in early 2004. CDE did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that bottomed in May (looks like on the chart) 2005, so, CDE is in an Elliott Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
Using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps one would have known to get out of CDE in Wave 5, and, Wave 5 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, one could have gotten out close to the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high.
Notice in chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html that the Trade the Cycles approach nailed HUI's minor intermediate term cycle high, with a 2% sell signal occurring only two days (12-7) after the minor intermediate term cycle high (12-5), and, the trendline broke down the day after that cycle high, so, you might have sold the day after that cycle high, since you obviously don't have to wait for the 2% sell signal.
Without using cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps you won't know when to sell or when to buy. This is why I haven't seen any other investment (let alone gold) writer who can consistently time the market. Most/nearly all of the gold writers I occasionally (more like quick glance and I get annoyed) read are almost always wrong, they can't even inconsistently time the market. They almost always get more bullish near cycle highs and more bearish or cautious near cycle lows.
The many clueless gold writers will be bullish years after the HUI/NEM/XAU Secular Bull Market peaks, because they don't understand cycle trendlines in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps. HUI's dramatic 1000%+ rise (It rose more than a factor of 10, from 35ish to 401.69 on 5-11-06) in the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from November 2000 until May 11, 2006 has rendered the vast majority of gold writers' brains useless, due to an overdose of complacency. The vast majority of gold writers have become very complacent/soft. They didn't learn much from the bubble of 1999/2000 in the major averages (A very long term upcycle peaking for the NASDAQ and S & P 500).
If you don't have a healthy respect for the markets they WILL crush you many times over. Two vicious declines so far this year (May 11 until June 13 and early September until October 4) still hasn't shaken the extreme complacency out of most gold writers.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:13 AM
