.......NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 45.02 Today
NEM filled it's downside gap from today's open at 45.02, but, the XAU didn't fill today's downside gap at 138.48. NEM led, what else is new?
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.28% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.35% on 12-22, and, a strong close by the US Dollar near it's session cycle high today at 83.82 (up +0.15) points to HUI/NEM/XAU weakness tomorrow after likely early strength.
HUI/NEM/XAU completed a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle (began on Friday) today, then did a Wave A down (sharp drop is a bearish sign) and appeared to be early in Wave B up at session's end, which points to early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
HUI/NEM/XAU rallied toward the top of their downtrending channels today. HUI has a linear downtrending channel since hitting a minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-5-06, while the NEM dominated XAU recently turned down some, which means it's weakness has increased.
The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today after being a modestly bullish +0.16% on 12-22, which points to SPX/HUI/NEM/XAU strength after completing the downside gap filling action. WMT appears to be a great lead indicator for SPX (S & P 500), and, therefore also HUI/NEM/XAU, because SPX is the lead index due to program trading, which is 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and 70% of the dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading).
It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 138.49, 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.
Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.28% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.35% on 12-22, and, a strong close by the US Dollar near it's session cycle high today at 83.82 (up +0.15) points to HUI/NEM/XAU weakness tomorrow after likely early strength.
HUI/NEM/XAU completed a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle (began on Friday) today, then did a Wave A down (sharp drop is a bearish sign) and appeared to be early in Wave B up at session's end, which points to early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
HUI/NEM/XAU rallied toward the top of their downtrending channels today. HUI has a linear downtrending channel since hitting a minor intermediate term cycle high on 12-5-06, while the NEM dominated XAU recently turned down some, which means it's weakness has increased.
The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.81% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today after being a modestly bullish +0.16% on 12-22, which points to SPX/HUI/NEM/XAU strength after completing the downside gap filling action. WMT appears to be a great lead indicator for SPX (S & P 500), and, therefore also HUI/NEM/XAU, because SPX is the lead index due to program trading, which is 45% of the daily trading volume on the NYSE and 70% of the dollar volume (the actual money involved in the trading).
It makes sense (this has happened many times) that NEM's Wave A down of it's minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-8-06 (cycle high at 47.80) will bottom after it's first cluster of gaps gets filled (45.73 (filled), 44.88 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.03), and, it looks like the XAU will bottom shortly after filling it's gaps at 138.49, 138.37 (filled) and 132.67.
Massive Fed Credit since 12-14 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) has been keeping SPX's downtrend since 12-18 reasonable thanks to index fund program trading, and, so far has prevented HUI/NEM/XAU from experiencing any vicious 3-5%+ declines in a single session.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:45 PM
