.......WMT's Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Held!
The positive story amidst today's big gloom is that WMT's short term Wave 2 cycle low at 46.47 (occurred in late May) held. Today's cycle low at 46.53, that took out the previous likely short term Wave 4 cycle low at 47.23, has a good chance of being the short term Wave 4 cycle low, since Elliott Wave patterns usually hold/rarely fail, WMT put in a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), and, the WMT Lead Indicator is short term Bullish (was +0.14% versus SPX today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 yesterday and SPX (S & P 500) may have put in (bullish large inverse spike today) a Wave A cycle low at 1465.59 late today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) versus the prior monthly cycle low at 1484.18 and a monthly cycle high at 1555.90 eight sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which was the third/final Wave 5 cycle high of the intermediate term upcycle that began in March.
The month upcycle from 1484.18 until 1555.90 was a final Wave 5 upcycle. This became apparent after today's decline, which took out the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18. SPX's current eight session downcycle is very likely to be just Wave A down of an intermediate term downcycle, since a short term Wave B type upcycle hasn't occurred yet. Wave B may have begun late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
This means that, once SPX's Wave B upcycle peaks some time in the next week or so, one should seriously consider exiting long positions and (possibly) look to trade short, since another substantial/vicious decline in Wave C is very likely to occur.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 28.81, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 28.81 today.
AEZ, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, took out it's likely monthly cycle low that occurred at 5.74, with a cycle low today at 5.61. Note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. Once AEZ does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 on Tuesday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from Thursday 7-19 is a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 on Tuesday (BQI probably entered Wave C down of a monthly downcycle today).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more (did today, but waiting for a higher high tomorrow makes sense) and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.84 today.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
JRCC may have put in an intermediate term cycle low at 7.05 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. One should wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/monthly cycle buy signal, and, maybe even for JRCC to clearly put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low above 7.05 before looking to buy JRCC, since it needs to establish an important intermediate term cycle low.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 yesterday and SPX (S & P 500) may have put in (bullish large inverse spike today) a Wave A cycle low at 1465.59 late today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) versus the prior monthly cycle low at 1484.18 and a monthly cycle high at 1555.90 eight sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which was the third/final Wave 5 cycle high of the intermediate term upcycle that began in March.
The month upcycle from 1484.18 until 1555.90 was a final Wave 5 upcycle. This became apparent after today's decline, which took out the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18. SPX's current eight session downcycle is very likely to be just Wave A down of an intermediate term downcycle, since a short term Wave B type upcycle hasn't occurred yet. Wave B may have begun late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
This means that, once SPX's Wave B upcycle peaks some time in the next week or so, one should seriously consider exiting long positions and (possibly) look to trade short, since another substantial/vicious decline in Wave C is very likely to occur.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 28.81, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 28.81 today.
AEZ, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, took out it's likely monthly cycle low that occurred at 5.74, with a cycle low today at 5.61. Note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. Once AEZ does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 on Tuesday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from Thursday 7-19 is a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 on Tuesday (BQI probably entered Wave C down of a monthly downcycle today).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more (did today, but waiting for a higher high tomorrow makes sense) and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.84 today.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
JRCC may have put in an intermediate term cycle low at 7.05 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. One should wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/monthly cycle buy signal, and, maybe even for JRCC to clearly put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low above 7.05 before looking to buy JRCC, since it needs to establish an important intermediate term cycle low.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
