Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Has Formed A Short Term Bullish Triple Bottom
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT has formed a short term bullish triple bottom at 47.95 last Wednesday, 47.92 on Friday, and at 47.95 today,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Friday's cycle low at 47.92 is probably a Wave 2 down cycle low of a short term Wave 5, the short term Wave 4 bottomed at 47.23. Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.39% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, but, it narrowed significantly late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday 7-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.71% versus the XAU today, but, it narrowed/became less bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Now for the rockets:
ACI may have put in an intermediate term and monthly cycle low at 31.31 today, since it rallied dramatically to close at 33.34, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. ACI needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The fact that ACI filled today's upside gap at 33.44 is another sign that ACI probably bottomed today.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
It looks like BCON may have put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 last Wednesday, since it's done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since hitting a short term cycle high at 2.09 early on Friday (Wave A cycle low at 1.75 on Friday and Wave C at 1.71 today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
But, BCON needs to show some significant strength tomorrow to clearly indicate that it's in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. If so I'll probably look to buy some on weakness. Today's large bullish inverse spike, plus the fact that BCON didn't approach it's downside gap at 1.42 (doesn't look like it'll fill it) are positive signs.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00. BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 35.70 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY, in a short term Wave 3, made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at today's open, and, closed above the open (bullish white candle) and has a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Friday's cycle low at 47.92 is probably a Wave 2 down cycle low of a short term Wave 5, the short term Wave 4 bottomed at 47.23. Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.39% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, but, it narrowed significantly late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday 7-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.71% versus the XAU today, but, it narrowed/became less bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Now for the rockets:
ACI may have put in an intermediate term and monthly cycle low at 31.31 today, since it rallied dramatically to close at 33.34, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. ACI needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The fact that ACI filled today's upside gap at 33.44 is another sign that ACI probably bottomed today.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
It looks like BCON may have put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 last Wednesday, since it's done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since hitting a short term cycle high at 2.09 early on Friday (Wave A cycle low at 1.75 on Friday and Wave C at 1.71 today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
But, BCON needs to show some significant strength tomorrow to clearly indicate that it's in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. If so I'll probably look to buy some on weakness. Today's large bullish inverse spike, plus the fact that BCON didn't approach it's downside gap at 1.42 (doesn't look like it'll fill it) are positive signs.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00. BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 35.70 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY, in a short term Wave 3, made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at today's open, and, closed above the open (bullish white candle) and has a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:15 PM
