The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Very Bullish +1.11% Versus The S & P 500 (SPX) Today
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.11% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. I bought WMT near session's end slightly below 48.77.
It looks like WMT might do an intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), but, based on the very bullish WMT Lead Indicator today, the large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, and the fact that WMT held up well near session's end, I bought some WMT. It looks like Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 5 bottomed at 47.96 yesterday, which means that the downside gap at 47.68 and today's at 48.04 are bullish breakaway gaps.
Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy SSO on weakness tomorrow.
HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 is probably peaking (change from what I said yesterday, gold's picture is unchanged). For HUI Wave 1 of Wave B was 369.38 in September 2006, Wave 3 was 369.69 in April 2007, and, the cycle high that occurs now will probably Wave 5 of Wave B, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
In Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 HUI is doing an extremely flat uptrend, with Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs at 369.38 and 369.69. This is a great opportunity to get the hell out of gold and gold shares, HOWEVER, some gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bull Market, in which case one might hold them, but, the next few months should be very tough for the precious metals market, so, lightening up probably makes sense for many investors/traders.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
My trading stocks/rockets synopsis:
ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade yesterday, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low yesterday at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling yesterday's upside gap at 34.59. The bullish very large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) are a great sign. ACI had a bearish large spike on today's candle, so, I'm going to wait for more strength before I look to buy it. Also, the double bottom cycle low at 33 (with 32.94) might be/probably is the equivalent of a monthly cycle low, so, I'm being cautious.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed yesterday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. Today's strength was a dramatic spike during the last hour of trading. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally yesterday/today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday. I'll be looking to buy JASO tomorrow since it hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session, then trended down most of the session. I might wait for the short term Wave 2 down also before buying.
A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.
BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 yesterday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal today, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.
ONT probably hit a monthly cycle low at 2.13 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont, but, it needs to follow through more before a monthly cycle buy signal occurs. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.10 today. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at yesterday's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
It looks like WMT might do an intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), but, based on the very bullish WMT Lead Indicator today, the large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, and the fact that WMT held up well near session's end, I bought some WMT. It looks like Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 5 bottomed at 47.96 yesterday, which means that the downside gap at 47.68 and today's at 48.04 are bullish breakaway gaps.
Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy SSO on weakness tomorrow.
HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 is probably peaking (change from what I said yesterday, gold's picture is unchanged). For HUI Wave 1 of Wave B was 369.38 in September 2006, Wave 3 was 369.69 in April 2007, and, the cycle high that occurs now will probably Wave 5 of Wave B, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
In Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 HUI is doing an extremely flat uptrend, with Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs at 369.38 and 369.69. This is a great opportunity to get the hell out of gold and gold shares, HOWEVER, some gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bull Market, in which case one might hold them, but, the next few months should be very tough for the precious metals market, so, lightening up probably makes sense for many investors/traders.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
My trading stocks/rockets synopsis:
ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade yesterday, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low yesterday at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling yesterday's upside gap at 34.59. The bullish very large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) are a great sign. ACI had a bearish large spike on today's candle, so, I'm going to wait for more strength before I look to buy it. Also, the double bottom cycle low at 33 (with 32.94) might be/probably is the equivalent of a monthly cycle low, so, I'm being cautious.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed yesterday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. Today's strength was a dramatic spike during the last hour of trading. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally yesterday/today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday. I'll be looking to buy JASO tomorrow since it hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session, then trended down most of the session. I might wait for the short term Wave 2 down also before buying.
A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.
BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 yesterday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal today, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.
ONT probably hit a monthly cycle low at 2.13 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont, but, it needs to follow through more before a monthly cycle buy signal occurs. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.10 today. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at yesterday's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
