WMT Filled It's Downside Gap At 47.60 As Expected
WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.60 as I expected it would this week, based on the recent inability to hit a Wave 5 short term buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The difficult trading environment for well over a month now has been due largely to the fact that WMT and SPX (S & P 500, "the market" basically) have been correcting, with WMT in a (very long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, and, SPX was in an intermediate term downcycle for nearly a month's time, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
SPX probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 1484.18 in late June (see chart 1 at previous link), note the bullish large inverse spike and that an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred. This current plunge appears to be a short term Wave 4 downcycle. Now that WMT has filled it's downside gap at 47.60, it and SPX should bottom soon and enter a short term Wave 5 upcycle, that should exceed the previous Wave 3 cycle highs at 51.44 and 1534.26.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX today, but, the performance gap narrowed substantially late in the session, which indicates that a rebound is likely at some point early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.57% versus the XAU today, so, the precious metals sector is likely to be very weak tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
FRPT probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 22.94 early today, and, shot up to a session cycle high and likely Wave 1 of Wave 3 cycle high at 24.18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt. I'll look to buy FRPT tomorrow in Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 3. A monthly cycle low occurred at 20.39 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
AEZ entered a short term Wave 3 after putting in a Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 last Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on weakness tomorrow. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal one session later).
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 yesterday, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on yesterday's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the current short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, after it fills a downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 probably won't get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle trendline), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note that VPHM is in Wave C of the short term Wave 4 downcycle.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 yesterday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. Today's huge % decline, combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish today (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Also, once WMT hits a short term Wave 5 buy signal, I may trade it and SSO, the ultra long SPX ETF, long of course.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The difficult trading environment for well over a month now has been due largely to the fact that WMT and SPX (S & P 500, "the market" basically) have been correcting, with WMT in a (very long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, and, SPX was in an intermediate term downcycle for nearly a month's time, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
SPX probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 1484.18 in late June (see chart 1 at previous link), note the bullish large inverse spike and that an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred. This current plunge appears to be a short term Wave 4 downcycle. Now that WMT has filled it's downside gap at 47.60, it and SPX should bottom soon and enter a short term Wave 5 upcycle, that should exceed the previous Wave 3 cycle highs at 51.44 and 1534.26.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX today, but, the performance gap narrowed substantially late in the session, which indicates that a rebound is likely at some point early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.57% versus the XAU today, so, the precious metals sector is likely to be very weak tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
FRPT probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 22.94 early today, and, shot up to a session cycle high and likely Wave 1 of Wave 3 cycle high at 24.18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt. I'll look to buy FRPT tomorrow in Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 3. A monthly cycle low occurred at 20.39 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
AEZ entered a short term Wave 3 after putting in a Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 last Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on weakness tomorrow. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal one session later).
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 yesterday, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on yesterday's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the current short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, after it fills a downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 probably won't get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle trendline), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note that VPHM is in Wave C of the short term Wave 4 downcycle.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 yesterday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. Today's huge % decline, combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish today (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Also, once WMT hits a short term Wave 5 buy signal, I may trade it and SSO, the ultra long SPX ETF, long of course.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
