I Bought ACI At 35.03 And AEZ At 6.40 Late Today
I bought ACI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aci&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) at 35.03 and AEZ at 6.40 late today. Both put in bullish large inverse spikes when they recently hit monthly cycle lows, with ACI's at 32.94 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) on Wednesday 6-27 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28) and AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
From the daily chart it looks like ACI still needs to do Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 (Wave 4 probably bottomed today), so, I may sell ACI tomorrow or Monday and look to re enter a day or two later.
With AEZ I'll hold for the short term Wave 3 that should last a few days to a week+. The short term Wave 2 may have bottomed today, however, there's a downside gap at 6.22 from last Friday's open that may get filled tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
WMT finally filled it's downside gap at 48.11 late today. Given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.82% versus SPX, and, since it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, it appears likely that WMT will at least try to fill 47.60 tomorrow.
As discussed the past week SPX's short term upcycle since early Wednesday 6-27 is rolling over/flattening out, and, may have peaked today. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern. SPX will probably fill Monday's downside gap at 1,503.35 in the next session or two, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.82% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Regarding DNDN, the current "monthly" upcycle since hitting 6.30 recently (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn) may be a Wave B countertrend upcycle and not a true monthly upcycle. I think one has to be conservative and assume that's the case. Since hitting 13+ there isn't an obvious Wave B upcycle on the daily chart.
The way DNDN acts on an intraday basis seems bearish to me also, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. However, DNDN has three bullish breakaway gaps at 7.05, 7.23, and 7.70 the past 3 sessions, but, one must also consider the Elliott Wave pattern and the fact that there isn't an obvious Wave B upcycle evident on the daily chart.
AVNR appears to have finally hit a monthly cycle low at 2.35 on Monday, gapping up "big time" to 2.80 from 2.37 (likely bullish breakaway gap), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR will need to put in a higher cycle high in the next few sessions (do a short term Wave 1 upcycle) in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that Monday's cycle low at 2.35 (bullish double bottom with the previous monthly cycle low at 2.36) is very likely to be a monthly cycle low.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 on Monday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 may have bottomed at 1.71 today. The large bullish inverse spike on today's candle is a good sign, but, there's also an even larger bearish spike on today's candle. The short term Wave 1 peaked at 2.14. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on Monday's candle, has been very flat the past seven sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.82% versus SPX today, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
From the daily chart it looks like ACI still needs to do Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 (Wave 4 probably bottomed today), so, I may sell ACI tomorrow or Monday and look to re enter a day or two later.
With AEZ I'll hold for the short term Wave 3 that should last a few days to a week+. The short term Wave 2 may have bottomed today, however, there's a downside gap at 6.22 from last Friday's open that may get filled tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
WMT finally filled it's downside gap at 48.11 late today. Given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.82% versus SPX, and, since it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, it appears likely that WMT will at least try to fill 47.60 tomorrow.
As discussed the past week SPX's short term upcycle since early Wednesday 6-27 is rolling over/flattening out, and, may have peaked today. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern. SPX will probably fill Monday's downside gap at 1,503.35 in the next session or two, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.82% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Regarding DNDN, the current "monthly" upcycle since hitting 6.30 recently (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn) may be a Wave B countertrend upcycle and not a true monthly upcycle. I think one has to be conservative and assume that's the case. Since hitting 13+ there isn't an obvious Wave B upcycle on the daily chart.
The way DNDN acts on an intraday basis seems bearish to me also, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. However, DNDN has three bullish breakaway gaps at 7.05, 7.23, and 7.70 the past 3 sessions, but, one must also consider the Elliott Wave pattern and the fact that there isn't an obvious Wave B upcycle evident on the daily chart.
AVNR appears to have finally hit a monthly cycle low at 2.35 on Monday, gapping up "big time" to 2.80 from 2.37 (likely bullish breakaway gap), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR will need to put in a higher cycle high in the next few sessions (do a short term Wave 1 upcycle) in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that Monday's cycle low at 2.35 (bullish double bottom with the previous monthly cycle low at 2.36) is very likely to be a monthly cycle low.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 on Monday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 may have bottomed at 1.71 today. The large bullish inverse spike on today's candle is a good sign, but, there's also an even larger bearish spike on today's candle. The short term Wave 1 peaked at 2.14. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on Monday's candle, has been very flat the past seven sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.82% versus SPX today, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
