SPX's Short Term Upcycle Is Rolling Over/Flattening Out
As discussed yesterday SPX's short term upcycle since early last Wednesday is rolling over/flattening out, and, may have peaked early today. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern. SPX will probably fill yesterday's downside gap at 1,503.35 in the next session or two, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT will probably fill today's downside gap at 48.11 on Thursday or Friday (cycle low at 48.13 today), and, the downside gap at 47.60 may yet get filled also, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. 47.69 may not be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 and a monthly cycle low occurred at 46.32.
Alternatively, reliable SPX lead indicator WMT may be on the verge of hitting a short term Wave 5 buy signal, because, there's a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, and, the candle is white, indicating a close above the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.07% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, was a very bearish -0.61% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.69% versus the XAU today, and, was a slightly bearish -0.23% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
DNDN (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn) decisively broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend yesterday and hit a Wave 3 buy signal. A short term Wave 1 spike cycle high occurred at Thursday 6-28's open at 7.65 and a monthly cycle low occurred at 6.30. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. When DNDN fills or clearly doesn't fill (likely) today's downside gap at 7.23 I'll look to buy a significant intraday Wave 2 type pullback.
CBAK's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.72 on Friday, since CBAK rallied substantially on strong volume to 3.96 near session's end on Friday and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CBAK&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. I'll look to buy weakness early on Thursday, when the late session spike will probably correct, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cbak&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Friday's and today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak.
AVNR appears to have finally hit a monthly cycle low at 2.35 yesterday, gapping up "big time" to 2.80 from 2.37 (likely bullish breakaway gap), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR will need to put in a higher cycle high in the next few sessions (do a short term Wave 1 upcycle) in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that yesterday's cycle low at 2.35 (bullish double bottom with the previous monthly cycle low at 2.36) is very likely to be a monthly cycle low.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 yesterday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wednesday 6-28 cycle low at 1.73 may be a Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on yesterday's candle, has been very flat the past six sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.61% versus SPX yesterday, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), AEZ (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal)
Please see Thursday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/06/dndn-probably-put-in-monthly-cycle-low.html for more rockets detailed analysis/info.
ACI needs to do a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. The short term Wave 1 may have peaked today. ACI put in a monthly cycle low at 32.94 on Wednesday 6-27 and hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 6-27's candle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
That's it for now. Ciao.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT will probably fill today's downside gap at 48.11 on Thursday or Friday (cycle low at 48.13 today), and, the downside gap at 47.60 may yet get filled also, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. 47.69 may not be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 and a monthly cycle low occurred at 46.32.
Alternatively, reliable SPX lead indicator WMT may be on the verge of hitting a short term Wave 5 buy signal, because, there's a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, and, the candle is white, indicating a close above the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.07% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, was a very bearish -0.61% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.69% versus the XAU today, and, was a slightly bearish -0.23% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
DNDN (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn) decisively broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend yesterday and hit a Wave 3 buy signal. A short term Wave 1 spike cycle high occurred at Thursday 6-28's open at 7.65 and a monthly cycle low occurred at 6.30. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. When DNDN fills or clearly doesn't fill (likely) today's downside gap at 7.23 I'll look to buy a significant intraday Wave 2 type pullback.
CBAK's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.72 on Friday, since CBAK rallied substantially on strong volume to 3.96 near session's end on Friday and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CBAK&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. I'll look to buy weakness early on Thursday, when the late session spike will probably correct, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cbak&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Friday's and today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak.
AVNR appears to have finally hit a monthly cycle low at 2.35 yesterday, gapping up "big time" to 2.80 from 2.37 (likely bullish breakaway gap), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR will need to put in a higher cycle high in the next few sessions (do a short term Wave 1 upcycle) in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that yesterday's cycle low at 2.35 (bullish double bottom with the previous monthly cycle low at 2.36) is very likely to be a monthly cycle low.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 yesterday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wednesday 6-28 cycle low at 1.73 may be a Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on yesterday's candle, has been very flat the past six sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.61% versus SPX yesterday, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), AEZ (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal)
Please see Thursday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/06/dndn-probably-put-in-monthly-cycle-low.html for more rockets detailed analysis/info.
ACI needs to do a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. The short term Wave 1 may have peaked today. ACI put in a monthly cycle low at 32.94 on Wednesday 6-27 and hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 6-27's candle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
That's it for now. Ciao.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:41 AM
