..............I Sold ACI At 36 And Held AEZ
I sold ACI a bit early at 36 early today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aci&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), due to the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator yesterday, ACI's double top the prior two days at 36ish that proved to be temporary resistance, etc. I did well, buying it late yesterday at 35.03 and selling it early today at 36. Normally I don't try to be that nimble and trade Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1, especially as tough as the market's been recently.
ACI's Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 may have peaked today at 36.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28.
AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later). I held on to AEZ (bought at 6.40 late yesterday), which appeared to put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll hold for the short term Wave 3 that should last a few days to a week+. There's a downside gap at 6.22, so, one can't rule out a downside surprise early next week.
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) continued to trade in a narrow sideways fashion, as it's done for more than a week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The fact that WMT can't get off it's behind probably means that it'll fill it's downside gap at 47.60 next week.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.29% versus SPX today/on 7-6, but, has been bearish recently at -0.82% on 7-5, -0.07% on 7-3, -0.61% on 7-2, -0.05% on 6-29, and -0.48% on 6-28, which supports the likely scenario that WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 next week.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.22% versus the XAU today/on 7-6, due largely to the news that it is now unhedged for gold. I suspect that the NEM Lead Indicator will revert to bearish (-0.91% on 7-5, -0.69% on 7-3, -0.23% on 7-2, +0.19% on 6-29, +0.03% on 6-28, -1.27% on 6-27) as NEM corrects today's huge +5.56% spike move next week.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 on Monday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 may have bottomed at 1.71 yesterday. The large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle is a good sign. The short term Wave 1 peaked at 2.14. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on Monday's candle, has been very flat the past eight sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.82% versus SPX yesterday, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I may trade FRPT next week, that's in a short term Wave 2 down now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt. I need to take a good look at the longer cycles, but, based on a quick look, I think FRPT just entered a Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle. There are more listed below that I may trade when their cycles are right for trading long. There are even more I've found that I may post this weekend.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are CBAK (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak), CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
ACI's Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 may have peaked today at 36.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28.
AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later). I held on to AEZ (bought at 6.40 late yesterday), which appeared to put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll hold for the short term Wave 3 that should last a few days to a week+. There's a downside gap at 6.22, so, one can't rule out a downside surprise early next week.
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) continued to trade in a narrow sideways fashion, as it's done for more than a week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The fact that WMT can't get off it's behind probably means that it'll fill it's downside gap at 47.60 next week.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.29% versus SPX today/on 7-6, but, has been bearish recently at -0.82% on 7-5, -0.07% on 7-3, -0.61% on 7-2, -0.05% on 6-29, and -0.48% on 6-28, which supports the likely scenario that WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 next week.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.22% versus the XAU today/on 7-6, due largely to the news that it is now unhedged for gold. I suspect that the NEM Lead Indicator will revert to bearish (-0.91% on 7-5, -0.69% on 7-3, -0.23% on 7-2, +0.19% on 6-29, +0.03% on 6-28, -1.27% on 6-27) as NEM corrects today's huge +5.56% spike move next week.
GNBT filled it's upside gap at 1.84 on Monday at the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 may have bottomed at 1.71 yesterday. The large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle is a good sign. The short term Wave 1 peaked at 2.14. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52.
Since GNBT had a bearish large spike (occurred at the open) on Monday's candle, has been very flat the past eight sessions, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.82% versus SPX yesterday, I'm being cautious about buying GNBT right now. I'll probably wait for a sustained strong very short term uptrend to begin. The Yahoo 5 day chart is very flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I may trade FRPT next week, that's in a short term Wave 2 down now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt. I need to take a good look at the longer cycles, but, based on a quick look, I think FRPT just entered a Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle. There are more listed below that I may trade when their cycles are right for trading long. There are even more I've found that I may post this weekend.
Other stocks I'm watching and may buy this week are CBAK (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak), CRYO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cryo), VSE (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vse), USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey, needs to fill upside gap above 2 before I'll buy), WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso, WMT must hit a buy signal), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, if it hits a Wave 5 buy signal).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
