I Sold AEZ Early Today At 6.661 Versus Thursday's Purchase At 6.40
I sold AEZ (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) early today at 6.661 versus Thursday's purchase at 6.40, because, AEZ hit a wall at 6.70 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high, and, looks like it'll fill (did as I was writing this) today's downside gap at 6.62.
AEZ probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 early on Friday, but, there's also a downside gap at 6.22 that probably won't get filled until later on. I may buy AEZ back today or tomorrow at 6.40-6.50. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
I'm looking to buy FRPT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt) in the current short term Wave 2 or early in Wave 3 after it fills downside gaps at 23.35 from today's open (filled) and at 22.50 from last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the current short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, after it fills a downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 probably won't get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle trendline), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note that VPHM is in Wave C of the short term Wave 4 downcycle.
I'm looking to buy UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) in the current short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3, after it (probably) fills the downside gap at 2.07ish (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A bullish double bottom monthly cycle low occurred at 1.60, with the second cycle low having a bullish large inverse spike. A monthly cycle buy signal occurred two days later. A short term Wave 1 cycle high occurred today at 2.55. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse.
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 today, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on today's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) continues to trade in a narrow sideways fashion, as it's done for more than a week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The fact that WMT can't get off it's ass probably means that it'll fill it's downside gap at 47.60 this week.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.29% versus SPX on 7-6, but, has been bearish recently at -0.82% on 7-5, -0.07% on 7-3, -0.61% on 7-2, -0.05% on 6-29, and -0.48% on 6-28, which supports the likely scenario that WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 this week.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.22% versus the XAU on 7-6, due largely to the news that it is now unhedged for gold. I suspect that the NEM Lead Indicator will revert to bearish (-0.91% on 7-5, -0.69% on 7-3, -0.23% on 7-2, +0.19% on 6-29, +0.03% on 6-28, -1.27% on 6-27) as NEM corrects today's huge +5.56% spike move this week.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
AEZ probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 early on Friday, but, there's also a downside gap at 6.22 that probably won't get filled until later on. I may buy AEZ back today or tomorrow at 6.40-6.50. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
I'm looking to buy FRPT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt) in the current short term Wave 2 or early in Wave 3 after it fills downside gaps at 23.35 from today's open (filled) and at 22.50 from last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the current short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, after it fills a downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 probably won't get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle trendline), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note that VPHM is in Wave C of the short term Wave 4 downcycle.
I'm looking to buy UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) in the current short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3, after it (probably) fills the downside gap at 2.07ish (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A bullish double bottom monthly cycle low occurred at 1.60, with the second cycle low having a bullish large inverse spike. A monthly cycle buy signal occurred two days later. A short term Wave 1 cycle high occurred today at 2.55. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse.
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 today, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on today's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Reliable SPX ("the market" basically) lead indicator WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) continues to trade in a narrow sideways fashion, as it's done for more than a week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The fact that WMT can't get off it's ass probably means that it'll fill it's downside gap at 47.60 this week.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.29% versus SPX on 7-6, but, has been bearish recently at -0.82% on 7-5, -0.07% on 7-3, -0.61% on 7-2, -0.05% on 6-29, and -0.48% on 6-28, which supports the likely scenario that WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 this week.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.22% versus the XAU on 7-6, due largely to the news that it is now unhedged for gold. I suspect that the NEM Lead Indicator will revert to bearish (-0.91% on 7-5, -0.69% on 7-3, -0.23% on 7-2, +0.19% on 6-29, +0.03% on 6-28, -1.27% on 6-27) as NEM corrects today's huge +5.56% spike move this week.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:25 AM
