The S & P 500's (SPX) Wave 1 Of A Short Term Wave 5 Upcycle Appears To Be Peaking/Rolling Over
The S & P 500's (SPX) Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle since early Wednesday appears to be peaking/rolling over (probably just Wave 1 of Wave 5), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.35% versus SPX today, but, WMT has been extremely flat the past two sessions (after the bullish large gap up to 48.90 from 47.68 at yesterday's open), putting in a cycle high today at 49.26 versus yesterday's cycle high at 49.24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, WMT looks like it'll plunge early on Monday.
In simple terms, both WMT and SPX had large spike moves yesterday that rolled over today, and, will probably correct on Monday/early next week. Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's peaking action now should just be Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy WMT and SPX on weakness on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.55% versus the XAU today, but, is bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The XAU's recent "major" short term spike move (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) may have peaked today. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern and the bearish large spike on today's candle. Also, the COT data is clearly bearish, with the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorting gold in the five day period ending 7-10-07 versus the clueless/contrarian indicator gold Speculators trading significantly net long, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
FRPT's Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 appears to have bottomed at 22.39 late today versus the Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 yesterday (monthly cycle low at 20.39), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred on yesterday's candle (see first link), and, today had a respectable one also. I'll be looking to double up the number of shares traded on Monday.
AEZ's Wave 2 downcycle of a short term Wave 3 appears to have bottomed today at 6.61, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, and note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred on today's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on Monday. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
ACI's Wave 2 short term downcycle probably bottomed at 34.01, and, hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again on Monday.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the short term Wave 4 downcycle (probably bottomed Wednesday) or early in Wave 5, now that it filled it's downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 may not get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle channel), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 5 appears to have bottomed today (bullish large inverse spike occurred on today's candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm. A monthly cycle low occurred for VPHM at 13.09.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 on Monday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. The recent huge % decline (Wave A down), combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks. The Wave B upcycle appears to have begun yesterday.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish this week (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.35% versus SPX today, but, WMT has been extremely flat the past two sessions (after the bullish large gap up to 48.90 from 47.68 at yesterday's open), putting in a cycle high today at 49.26 versus yesterday's cycle high at 49.24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, WMT looks like it'll plunge early on Monday.
In simple terms, both WMT and SPX had large spike moves yesterday that rolled over today, and, will probably correct on Monday/early next week. Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's peaking action now should just be Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy WMT and SPX on weakness on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.55% versus the XAU today, but, is bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The XAU's recent "major" short term spike move (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) may have peaked today. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern and the bearish large spike on today's candle. Also, the COT data is clearly bearish, with the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorting gold in the five day period ending 7-10-07 versus the clueless/contrarian indicator gold Speculators trading significantly net long, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
FRPT's Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3 appears to have bottomed at 22.39 late today versus the Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 yesterday (monthly cycle low at 20.39), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred on yesterday's candle (see first link), and, today had a respectable one also. I'll be looking to double up the number of shares traded on Monday.
AEZ's Wave 2 downcycle of a short term Wave 3 appears to have bottomed today at 6.61, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, and note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred on today's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on Monday. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
ACI's Wave 2 short term downcycle probably bottomed at 34.01, and, hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again on Monday.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the short term Wave 4 downcycle (probably bottomed Wednesday) or early in Wave 5, now that it filled it's downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 may not get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle channel), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Wave 2 of a short term Wave 5 appears to have bottomed today (bullish large inverse spike occurred on today's candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm. A monthly cycle low occurred for VPHM at 13.09.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 on Monday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. The recent huge % decline (Wave A down), combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks. The Wave B upcycle appears to have begun yesterday.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish this week (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
