WMT's Short Term Wave 4 May Have Bottomed At 47.23 Today
Reliable SPX (the market basically) lead indicator WMT's Short Term Wave 4 may have bottomed at 47.23 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, shortly after WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.60 yesterday, as I expected it would this week, based on the recent inability to hit a Wave 5 short term buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The difficult trading environment for well over a month now has been due largely to the fact that WMT and SPX (S & P 500, "the market" basically) have been correcting, with WMT in a (very long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, and, SPX was in an intermediate term downcycle for nearly a month's time, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
SPX probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 1484.18 in late June (see chart 1 at previous link), note the bullish large inverse spike and that an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred. The recent plunge (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) appears to have been a short term Wave 4 downcycle. WMT and SPX have probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle, that should exceed the previous Wave 3 cycle highs at 51.44 and 1534.26.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.36% versus SPX today, and, was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX yesterday, and, the performance gap widened substantially late in the session, which indicates that some SPX weakness is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -2.39% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.57% versus the XAU yesterday, so, the precious metals sector is likely to be very weak tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
FRPT did not put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 22.94 early yesterday, but, probably did today at 22.25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I bought FRPT early today at 23.52 thinking that it had bottomed yesterday. I may "double up" tomorrow and double the number of shares traded. A monthly cycle low occurred at 20.39 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
AEZ entered a short term Wave 3 after putting in a Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 last Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on weakness tomorrow. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal one session later).
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 on Monday, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on Monday's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, now that it filled it's downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 may not get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle channel), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 on Monday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. Yesterday and today's huge % decline (Wave A down), combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish yesterday (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Also, once WMT hits a short term Wave 5 buy signal, I may trade it and SSO, the ultra long SPX ETF, long of course.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The difficult trading environment for well over a month now has been due largely to the fact that WMT and SPX (S & P 500, "the market" basically) have been correcting, with WMT in a (very long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, and, SPX was in an intermediate term downcycle for nearly a month's time, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
SPX probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 1484.18 in late June (see chart 1 at previous link), note the bullish large inverse spike and that an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred. The recent plunge (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) appears to have been a short term Wave 4 downcycle. WMT and SPX have probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle, that should exceed the previous Wave 3 cycle highs at 51.44 and 1534.26.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.36% versus SPX today, and, was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX yesterday, and, the performance gap widened substantially late in the session, which indicates that some SPX weakness is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -2.39% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.57% versus the XAU yesterday, so, the precious metals sector is likely to be very weak tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
FRPT did not put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 22.94 early yesterday, but, probably did today at 22.25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I bought FRPT early today at 23.52 thinking that it had bottomed yesterday. I may "double up" tomorrow and double the number of shares traded. A monthly cycle low occurred at 20.39 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal two sessions later).
AEZ entered a short term Wave 3 after putting in a Wave 2 cycle low at 6.30 last Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aez&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy AEZ again on weakness tomorrow. AEZ's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez) monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred at 5.74 (hit a monthly cycle buy signal one session later).
ACI's short term Wave 1 peaked at 37 on Monday, which is a bearish double top with Friday's cycle high at 46.98, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Note the bearish large spike on Monday's and Friday's candle. A monthly cycle low (bullish large inverse spike) occurred for ACI at 32.94 and it hit a monthly cycle buy signal on Thursday 6-28. I'll be looking to buy ACI again in the next few days in the short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3.
I'm looking to buy VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) in the short term Wave 4 downcycle or early in Wave 5, now that it filled it's downside gap at 14.48 (the one at 13.80 may not get filled until later based on the monthly upcycle channel), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) probably/appears to have put in a final Wave 5 cycle high at 2.55 on Monday of a multi month intermediate term upcycle, with Wave 1 peaking at 1.20 and Wave 3 peaking at 2.25, they're labeled in the chart at the link above. Yesterday and today's huge % decline (Wave A down), combined with the Elliott Wave count, probably means that UVSE.ob will do/complete a large Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle in the next few days/weeks.
UVSE.ob (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse) filled the downside gap at 2.07ish yesterday (don't have historical data), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uvse.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Also, once WMT hits a short term Wave 5 buy signal, I may trade it and SSO, the ultra long SPX ETF, long of course.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:11 PM
