Weak SPX As Expected And Gold/HUI/NEM/XAU Spiked
Here's an e mail I just sent someone: "Gold's primary multi year trendline is at 475ish right now, so, it's not really MY target (475-500), I'm simply using the primary trendline. Basic TA. Wave A down was $542 in June of last year I think it was. Wave B up peaked at $696ish in April 2007 I think it was. Gold's in Wave B of Wave C and should soon enter Wave C of Wave C. The laws of physics still apply.
This spike is probably Wave B of Wave C for HUI. Wave B peaked with double top cycle highs at 369.69 and 369.38. See the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Today's cycle high was 365.12."
Today had the look of important peaking action for Gold/HUI/NEM/XAU. Note that the NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish by session's end, falling from +1.00%ish versus the XAU at mid session to -0.02% at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
SPX was weak as expected today, and, it looks like WMT may fill it's downside gap at 47.68 before Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 bottoms, since the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.43% versus SPX today, and, it turned bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
WMT's Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked at 49.26 on Friday (leading to the downside), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500's (SPX) Wave 2 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle plunged today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
In simple terms, both WMT and SPX had large spike moves last Thursday that are correcting. Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy WMT and SSO on weakness tomorrow.
To summarize today's trading stocks/rockets action:
ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade today, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low today at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling today's upside gap at 34.59, which means that I'll be looking to buy ACI tomorrow. The bullish very large inverse spike on today's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) is a great sign.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed today at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22 then bounced to close at 6.40, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
JASO may have hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today, if so it should trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle see, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today. I'll look to buy JASO if it hits a monthly cycle buy signal.
A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is probably in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) peaked at 3.97 on Monday (monthly cycle high). Note the bearish large spike on Monday's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle that began Monday BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at today's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.
Since VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) isn't in a well established multi month intermediate term upcycle and I don't like the chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, I won't be trading it.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (may have bottomed, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
This spike is probably Wave B of Wave C for HUI. Wave B peaked with double top cycle highs at 369.69 and 369.38. See the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Today's cycle high was 365.12."
Today had the look of important peaking action for Gold/HUI/NEM/XAU. Note that the NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish by session's end, falling from +1.00%ish versus the XAU at mid session to -0.02% at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
SPX was weak as expected today, and, it looks like WMT may fill it's downside gap at 47.68 before Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 bottoms, since the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.43% versus SPX today, and, it turned bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
WMT's Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked at 49.26 on Friday (leading to the downside), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500's (SPX) Wave 2 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle plunged today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
In simple terms, both WMT and SPX had large spike moves last Thursday that are correcting. Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy WMT and SSO on weakness tomorrow.
To summarize today's trading stocks/rockets action:
ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade today, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low today at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling today's upside gap at 34.59, which means that I'll be looking to buy ACI tomorrow. The bullish very large inverse spike on today's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) is a great sign.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed today at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22 then bounced to close at 6.40, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
JASO may have hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today, if so it should trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle see, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today. I'll look to buy JASO if it hits a monthly cycle buy signal.
A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is probably in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) peaked at 3.97 on Monday (monthly cycle high). Note the bearish large spike on Monday's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle that began Monday BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at today's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.
Since VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) isn't in a well established multi month intermediate term upcycle and I don't like the chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, I won't be trading it.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (may have bottomed, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:28 PM
