The Extremely Bearish One Year NEM Lead Indicator
You want to see scary? I'll show you scary, see the one year NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Hell's coming to breakfast (very likely not 100%) the next few months for the precious metals sector.
It hasn't been a picnic since a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU/gold and on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, see charts 7 and 9 for HUI and the XAU, and, see chart 8 for NEM at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
One thing that I agree with most gold writers about is the likelihood (very likely) that the precious metals are in a 15-20+ year Secular Bull Market since April 2001 for gold, since late 2001 for silver, and, since late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU.
Technically gold bottomed in 1999 but didn't begin Bull Market behavior (sustained uptrend) until April 2001. Gold's Secular Bear Market lasted about 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001. With investing/trading one can NEVER be 100% certain, and, cockiness has no place. One better have a very healthy respect for the market or it will probably eventually if not quickly eat you alive.
As a famous quote says "professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward." I don't remember who said that, but, it's so true. Most of the gold writers are amateurs who are 100% certain (it seems) that gold will go to $1500/2000 in the next 5-10 years. I think it will in 10-15 years, but, it's NOT 100% certain. If you follow my work and my "Trade the Cycles" system you'll probably conclude that my focus is on risk.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU (see charts 7 and 9 at the link above). Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
It hasn't been a picnic since a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU/gold and on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, see charts 7 and 9 for HUI and the XAU, and, see chart 8 for NEM at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
One thing that I agree with most gold writers about is the likelihood (very likely) that the precious metals are in a 15-20+ year Secular Bull Market since April 2001 for gold, since late 2001 for silver, and, since late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU.
Technically gold bottomed in 1999 but didn't begin Bull Market behavior (sustained uptrend) until April 2001. Gold's Secular Bear Market lasted about 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001. With investing/trading one can NEVER be 100% certain, and, cockiness has no place. One better have a very healthy respect for the market or it will probably eventually if not quickly eat you alive.
As a famous quote says "professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward." I don't remember who said that, but, it's so true. Most of the gold writers are amateurs who are 100% certain (it seems) that gold will go to $1500/2000 in the next 5-10 years. I think it will in 10-15 years, but, it's NOT 100% certain. If you follow my work and my "Trade the Cycles" system you'll probably conclude that my focus is on risk.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU (see charts 7 and 9 at the link above). Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:39 AM
