Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Appears To Have Hit A Wave 2 Of Wave 5 Cycle Low At 47.92 Today
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appears to have hit a Wave 2 of Wave 5 Cycle Low at 47.92 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The fact that WMT plunged early in the session to the session cycle low at 47.92 and put in a bullish large inverse spike, then trended higher much of the rest of the session, is a good sign, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The bullish double bottom cycle low at 47.96 from Wednesday is another good sign. Today's weakness was largely driven by earnings disappointments from Google (GOOG) and Caterpiller (CAT).
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.28% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, was a very bullish +1.11% yesterday.
SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX has declined toward the bottom of it's monthly upcycle channel and probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note that SPX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern late in the session, so, early strength is likely on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.92% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.40% yesterday, and, became much more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 appears to be peaking modestly above the prior Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs that occurred at 369.38 (September 2006) and at 369.69 (April 2007), see the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Gold's Wave B probably peaked at $698 in April 2007 and Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold). $475-500 is a reasonable target for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's final Wave C cycle low, which will be another point on the relatively flat very long term upcycle Secular Bull Market trendline.
Now for the trading stocks:
ACI took out it's double bottom at 32.94 and 33 today, with a session cycle low at 32.86 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), so, ACI needs to establish a monthly cycle low by doing a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from today's open that I'll probably wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ on Monday. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal yesterday, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.25 today. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle and the dramatic two rally indicates that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, but, one should wait for today's upside gap at 39.06 to get filled before looking to buy JASO.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The fact that WMT plunged early in the session to the session cycle low at 47.92 and put in a bullish large inverse spike, then trended higher much of the rest of the session, is a good sign, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The bullish double bottom cycle low at 47.96 from Wednesday is another good sign. Today's weakness was largely driven by earnings disappointments from Google (GOOG) and Caterpiller (CAT).
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.28% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, was a very bullish +1.11% yesterday.
SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX has declined toward the bottom of it's monthly upcycle channel and probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note that SPX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern late in the session, so, early strength is likely on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.92% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.40% yesterday, and, became much more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 appears to be peaking modestly above the prior Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs that occurred at 369.38 (September 2006) and at 369.69 (April 2007), see the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Gold's Wave B probably peaked at $698 in April 2007 and Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold). $475-500 is a reasonable target for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's final Wave C cycle low, which will be another point on the relatively flat very long term upcycle Secular Bull Market trendline.
Now for the trading stocks:
ACI took out it's double bottom at 32.94 and 33 today, with a session cycle low at 32.86 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), so, ACI needs to establish a monthly cycle low by doing a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from today's open that I'll probably wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ on Monday. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal yesterday, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.
BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.25 today. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle and the dramatic two rally indicates that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, but, one should wait for today's upside gap at 39.06 to get filled before looking to buy JASO.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:36 PM
