SPX's (S & P 500) Cycle High At 1555.90 Was A Monthly Cycle High
SPX's (S & P 500) cycle high at 1555.90 six sessions ago was a monthly cycle high, for the monthly upcycle that began at 1484.18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. One can see that there are two inverse spikes in the previous monthly upcycle that correspond to short term Wave 2 and Wave 4 cycle lows.
I assumed that the first inverse spike was part of a long short term Wave 1 upcycle, because, that's what it looked like to me, but, I should have considered the possibility that it was a short term Wave 2 cycle low. If there's doubt one should simply use the conservative Elliott Wave count.
I correctly refrained from buying the ultra long ETF SSO in recent sessions however, but, bought WMT at 48.77ish a few sessions ago. I'll look to buy SSO tomorrow (read on).
SPX is probably in the process of putting in a monthly cycle low, and, may have done so shortly before the close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, which became more bullish as the session progressed (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), suggests that SPX will start to rally soon, probably early tomorrow.
WMT tried to fill it's downside gap at 47.68 today, with an early plunge to 47.72 followed by a sharp rally, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It looks like Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) finally bottomed at 47.72 today, after putting in cycle lows in recent sessions at 47.95, 47.92, and, at 47.96.
WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.05% versus the XAU today, but, probably just points to a reflex rally/Wave B type move (or maybe peaking in rollover mode action) after today's sharp intraday decline, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 30.89, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which helped me to avoid today's slight downside surprise. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle didn't bottom on Wednesday 7-18 at 6.11, since today's cycle low was 6.10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which might be the short term Wave 2 cycle low. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I thought about buying some today, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 yesterday and fell further to close at 3.78 today (BQI's in Wave A of a monthly downcycle).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 34.27 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at yesterday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), may have peaked at 2.20 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
I assumed that the first inverse spike was part of a long short term Wave 1 upcycle, because, that's what it looked like to me, but, I should have considered the possibility that it was a short term Wave 2 cycle low. If there's doubt one should simply use the conservative Elliott Wave count.
I correctly refrained from buying the ultra long ETF SSO in recent sessions however, but, bought WMT at 48.77ish a few sessions ago. I'll look to buy SSO tomorrow (read on).
SPX is probably in the process of putting in a monthly cycle low, and, may have done so shortly before the close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, which became more bullish as the session progressed (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), suggests that SPX will start to rally soon, probably early tomorrow.
WMT tried to fill it's downside gap at 47.68 today, with an early plunge to 47.72 followed by a sharp rally, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It looks like Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) finally bottomed at 47.72 today, after putting in cycle lows in recent sessions at 47.95, 47.92, and, at 47.96.
WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.05% versus the XAU today, but, probably just points to a reflex rally/Wave B type move (or maybe peaking in rollover mode action) after today's sharp intraday decline, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 30.89, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.
AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which helped me to avoid today's slight downside surprise. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle didn't bottom on Wednesday 7-18 at 6.11, since today's cycle low was 6.10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which might be the short term Wave 2 cycle low. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I thought about buying some today, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 yesterday and fell further to close at 3.78 today (BQI's in Wave A of a monthly downcycle).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 34.27 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at yesterday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), may have peaked at 2.20 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:15 PM
