WMT Filled It's Downside Gap At 47.68 And SPX (S & P 500) May Have Put In A Monthly Cycle Low
WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 today and SPX (S & P 500) may have put in a monthly cycle low at 1503.73 early today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) versus the prior monthly cycle low at 1484.18 and a monthly cycle high at 1555.90 seven sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Note that SPX's candle today has a bullish large inverse spike and is white, indicating a close higher than the open, which is the same type of candle that occurred at the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18.
Since WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 today, Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) may have finally bottomed at 47.55 today. Often important cycle lows/highs occur shortly after gap filling action is completed. WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Yesterday's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, that became more bullish as the session progressed, correctly suggested that SPX would start to rally soon, and did so early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.78% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, if WMT bottomed at 47.55 at about 1:30 pm EST today, it may have turned short term bullish yesterday.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 29.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 29.35 today.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle appears to have bottomed at 5.91 today (closed sharply higher at 6.174), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred. AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I thought about buying some yesterday, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. Today I was being cautious and I may wait for the downtrend line going back to the 2.09 Wave 1 cycle high to be broken. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday 7-19 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 yesterday (BQI entered Wave B up of a monthly downcycle yesterday).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.95 late today.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Note that SPX's candle today has a bullish large inverse spike and is white, indicating a close higher than the open, which is the same type of candle that occurred at the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18.
Since WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 today, Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) may have finally bottomed at 47.55 today. Often important cycle lows/highs occur shortly after gap filling action is completed. WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Yesterday's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, that became more bullish as the session progressed, correctly suggested that SPX would start to rally soon, and did so early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.78% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, if WMT bottomed at 47.55 at about 1:30 pm EST today, it may have turned short term bullish yesterday.
Now for the rockets:
ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 29.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 29.35 today.
AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle appears to have bottomed at 5.91 today (closed sharply higher at 6.174), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred. AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open.
BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I thought about buying some yesterday, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. Today I was being cautious and I may wait for the downtrend line going back to the 2.09 Wave 1 cycle high to be broken. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.
BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday 7-19 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 yesterday (BQI entered Wave B up of a monthly downcycle yesterday).
BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.
JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.95 late today.
TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.
Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:16 PM
