The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -0.81% Versus The XAU Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.81% versus the XAU today, and, is probably even more bearish than it seems, because NEM probably bottomed at 39.84 on 10-4-06 and HUI/XAU have probably yet to hit a Wave A cycle low for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see charts 1 and 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The fact that NEM has probably bottomed means that the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more bullish than it previously was, because NEM reliably leads to the upside. If I had more time to think at the end of the session, I probably would have bought XAU Puts, but it looks like I'll probably be buying tomorrow. The past sixteen weeks and four days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.06% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The fact that NEM has probably bottomed means that the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more bullish than it previously was, because NEM reliably leads to the upside. If I had more time to think at the end of the session, I probably would have bought XAU Puts, but it looks like I'll probably be buying tomorrow. The past sixteen weeks and four days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.06% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:39 PM
