The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Modestly Bullish +0.33% Versus The XAU Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.33% versus the XAU today. The past sixteen weeks and two days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.62% versus the XAU.
It may be that, since NEM probably bottomed last Wednesday at 39.84 (at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline), whereas HUI/XAU still have a substantial decline ahead of them in order to reach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, that the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more positive right now than before NEM bottomed. This means that today's NEM Lead Indicator (at a modestly bullish +0.33% versus the XAU) probably isn't as bullish as it seems, because, cycles being the primary market timing consideration, the fact that Wave A of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably hasn't bottomed (target 100-110 for the XAU), means that the NEM Lead Indicator is probably misleading, if you interpret it as if NEM still had a ways to fall, but it's probably bottomed. That being said it made sense for me to stay in cash today based on the downside gaps at 40.83 for NEM and 122.06 for the XAU not getting filled, the XAU Implied Volatility spike to 41.075, etc.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
It may be that, since NEM probably bottomed last Wednesday at 39.84 (at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline), whereas HUI/XAU still have a substantial decline ahead of them in order to reach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, that the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more positive right now than before NEM bottomed. This means that today's NEM Lead Indicator (at a modestly bullish +0.33% versus the XAU) probably isn't as bullish as it seems, because, cycles being the primary market timing consideration, the fact that Wave A of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably hasn't bottomed (target 100-110 for the XAU), means that the NEM Lead Indicator is probably misleading, if you interpret it as if NEM still had a ways to fall, but it's probably bottomed. That being said it made sense for me to stay in cash today based on the downside gaps at 40.83 for NEM and 122.06 for the XAU not getting filled, the XAU Implied Volatility spike to 41.075, etc.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
