NEM/XAU Barely Miss Filling Their Downside Gaps
NEM/XAU barely missed (NEM hit 40.84) filling their downside gaps at 40.83 (NEM) and at 122.06 (XAU) (created last Thursday) early today, which could be a bullish sign. However, the fact that reliable lead indicator NEM may have hit a very important cycle low at 39.84 last Wednesday right at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline (on extremely high volume of 17.52 million shares) is complicating things, because NEM may now be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, while HUI/XAU are probably just putting in a Wave A cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. So, NEM failing to fill a downside gap isn't surprising, while the XAU failing to fill a downside gap is.
HUI/NEM/XAU are bouncing right now after doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern (falling sharply) since the cycle highs that occurred early yesterday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (October expiration) fell again today to 0.63599 from 0.65000 yesterday, which correctly portended some weakness today. The complacent/low fear level well below 1.00000 is a bad sign, but, XAU Implied Volatility is spiking, and portends some strength today, because it rose much more %wise than the XAU fell yesterday, rising to a high fear level of 41.075 yesterday from 39.155 on Friday.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.95% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% versus the XAU yesterday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/NEM/XAU are bouncing right now after doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern (falling sharply) since the cycle highs that occurred early yesterday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (October expiration) fell again today to 0.63599 from 0.65000 yesterday, which correctly portended some weakness today. The complacent/low fear level well below 1.00000 is a bad sign, but, XAU Implied Volatility is spiking, and portends some strength today, because it rose much more %wise than the XAU fell yesterday, rising to a high fear level of 41.075 yesterday from 39.155 on Friday.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.95% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% versus the XAU yesterday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:19 AM
