Trade the Cycles

Monday, October 09, 2006

...........NEM/XAU Downside Gap Filling Action

As expected NEM/XAU failed to fill their upside gaps at 43.21 (NEM) and at 129.18 (XAU) created during last Tuesday's huge decline, and, appear to be well on their way to filling downside gaps from Thursday's open at 40.83 and 122.06. It looks like those downside gaps will get filled early tomorrow.

The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%.

The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4.

NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).

The past sixteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.95% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% versus the XAU today.

A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/