NEM Double Top And The XAU Put/Call Ratio Collapsed
NEM may have put in a bearish double top at 42.16 early today with the very short term cycle high at 42.14 that occurred early on Friday, if so, then a test of Wednesday's cycle lows is likely this week, especially since the XAU Put/Call Ratio (October expiration) collapsed to 0.65000 today from 0.67740, which is a very sharp +4.04% rise in complacency, since the XAU Put/Call Ratio fell by -4.04%. Also, the Fed provided no credit to index fund traders today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is rare. The Fed spiked the punch last week. They want strength to help the Republicans in the upcoming election, but not too much strength.
NEM and the XAU have unfilled downside gaps from Thursday's open at 40.83 and 122.06 that will probably get filled this week.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%!
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.80% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.14% versus the XAU on Friday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
NEM and the XAU have unfilled downside gaps from Thursday's open at 40.83 and 122.06 that will probably get filled this week.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%!
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.80% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.14% versus the XAU on Friday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:11 AM
