Trade the Cycles

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Timely Gold/Silver Stocks ONCE HUI/XAU's Wave A Of The Cyclical Bear Market Bottoms

Even though HUI/XAU probably have another substantial decline ahead of them before Wave A of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms (so trading long is risky right now), there are three stocks out of my trading stocks candidates list that MAY have bottomed and are relatively close to their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines: CDE, NEM, NTO. See the second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for NEM's very long term upcycle/Secular Bull Market trendline (in place since October 2000). Reliable lead indicator NEM hit it's very long term upcycle/Secular Bull Market trendline on Wednesday, falling to 39.84, and, probably began a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market after being in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06.

There's a good chance that NEM has bottomed (or nearly so), while CDE and NTO will probably experience a substantial decline in the next week or so. NEM may test 10-4's cycle low at 39.84, so, even NEM will probably fall sharply the next week or so. The best thing to do is to wait for HUI/XAU's Wave A of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 to bottom, or, to trade short/trade Puts.

The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%! ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/