............The XAU Put/Call Ratio Plunged Today
The XAU Put/Call Ratio plunged today to 0.68105 (October expiration) from 0.87094 yesterday, which is an unusually large (> 6%) rise in complacency that portends SOME (probably muted) strength today, BUT, the fact that the gold/silver stock market is still complacent is a BAD sign. Traders aggressively bought XAU October Call Options (total jumped to 32,337 versus 25,213 yesterday), apparently thinking that a major cycle low had occurred yesterday.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is 25-30%! The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 40.80 (so far) today. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40.50ish (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 40.50, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks IF it triggers a 5% major sell signal.
The past fifteen weeks and two days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -15.41% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is 25-30%! The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 40.80 (so far) today. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40.50ish (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 40.50, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks IF it triggers a 5% major sell signal.
The past fifteen weeks and two days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -15.41% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:08 AM
