............The Elliot Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market
The Elliot Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and on 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
Secular Bull (or Bear) Markets/very long term upcycles last about 17.2 years on average for the major averages, and, last about the same for the gold/silver sector. Gold's Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle lasted from 1980 until April 2001, when a Secular Bull Market began (gold stocks led, with a Secular Bull Market beginning in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU). I think gold actually bottomed in 1999, but, didn't begin acting like it was in a Bull Market until after the April 2001 cycle low. After the 1999 cycle low gold had a huge spike, then resumed a Bear Market until April 2001.
Secular Bull Markets/very long term upcycles do experience occasional Cyclical Bear Markets that, from a very long term perspective, are corrections within the Secular Bull Market. This is what's going on since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, or the first "correction" from a very long term 15-20 year+ point of view.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline may have begun on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
Secular Bull (or Bear) Markets/very long term upcycles last about 17.2 years on average for the major averages, and, last about the same for the gold/silver sector. Gold's Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle lasted from 1980 until April 2001, when a Secular Bull Market began (gold stocks led, with a Secular Bull Market beginning in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU). I think gold actually bottomed in 1999, but, didn't begin acting like it was in a Bull Market until after the April 2001 cycle low. After the 1999 cycle low gold had a huge spike, then resumed a Bear Market until April 2001.
Secular Bull Markets/very long term upcycles do experience occasional Cyclical Bear Markets that, from a very long term perspective, are corrections within the Secular Bull Market. This is what's going on since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, or the first "correction" from a very long term 15-20 year+ point of view.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline may have begun on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:33 AM
