Trade the Cycles

Thursday, September 28, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Misleadingly Bullish +1.05% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a "very bullish" +1.05% vs the XAU today, but, was simply "correcting" for yesterday's incredibly bearish -3.49% vs the XAU, due to NEM's bad news (please see yesterday's post regarding this if you're interested). The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on Tuesday, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on Monday, and, was a bearish -0.57% vs the XAU on Friday. The past fourteen weeks and four days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.94% versus the XAU.

The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. HUI/NEM/XAU hit the bottom of their short term downtrending channels on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), making new cycle lows for this major downcycle (since 9-6 for HUI/XAU and since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM). NEM made a new cycle low at 41.75 yesterday versus 42.20 on Monday.

A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline may have begun today for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/