HUI/XAU Strength Since Monday's Cycle Lows Is Probably Wave B
HUI/XAU strength since Monday's cycle lows is probably wave B of the major downcycle since 9-6, whereas reliable lead indicator NEM is already in Wave C of the major downcycle since 9-5 (NEM's started a day before HUI/XAU), hitting 41.75 yesterday versus 42.20 on Monday. If so then the next week or so will be the brutal wave C in which the XAU may fall to 100-110, which jives with the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator since last Friday (see next paragraph). The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -3.49% vs the XAU yesterday, was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on Tuesday, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on Monday, and, was a bearish -0.57% vs the XAU on Friday. The past fourteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.99% versus the XAU.
HUI/NEM/XAU hit the bottom of their short term downtrending channels on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), making new cycle lows for this major downcycle (since 9-6 for HUI/XAU and since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major downcycle since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions), but it looks like Wave B began on Monday for HUI/XAU. Wave B up of the major downcycle since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major downcycle from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -3.49% vs the XAU yesterday, was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on Tuesday, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on Monday, and, was a bearish -0.57% vs the XAU on Friday. The past fourteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.99% versus the XAU.
HUI/NEM/XAU hit the bottom of their short term downtrending channels on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), making new cycle lows for this major downcycle (since 9-6 for HUI/XAU and since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major downcycle since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions), but it looks like Wave B began on Monday for HUI/XAU. Wave B up of the major downcycle since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major downcycle from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:12 AM
