Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Is Very Near It's Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle Trendline
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 41.18 (so far) versus 41.75 last week, very near it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline at 41ish (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 41, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks if it triggers a major 5% sell signal. The price action is very important. 5% follow through below 41ish is required, which is a little over 2 points = 38.75ish. A very brief (less than two hours) plunge/inverse spike to 38.75ish or lower followed by a rebound wouldn't be a major/very long term cycle sell signal. Elliot Wave indicates that this should be Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000, so, a very long term cycle sell signal shouldn't occur.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.
The past fifteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.67% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 41, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks if it triggers a major 5% sell signal. The price action is very important. 5% follow through below 41ish is required, which is a little over 2 points = 38.75ish. A very brief (less than two hours) plunge/inverse spike to 38.75ish or lower followed by a rebound wouldn't be a major/very long term cycle sell signal. Elliot Wave indicates that this should be Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000, so, a very long term cycle sell signal shouldn't occur.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.
The past fifteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.67% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:38 AM
