Trade the Cycles

Friday, September 29, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Modestly Bearish -0.22% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.22% vs the XAU today, but, for the week the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -4.46% vs the XAU, which means that most of the buy the dips crowd/perma Bulls that're still standing will probably be obliterated in the next week or so.

A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. HUI/XAU probably entered Wave C down yesterday of the major downcycle since 9-6, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 will bottom, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a "very bullish" +1.05% vs the XAU yesterday, but, was simply "correcting" for Wednesday's incredibly bearish -3.49% vs the XAU, due to NEM's bad news (please see Wednesday's post regarding this if you're interested). The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on Tuesday, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on Monday, and, was a bearish -0.57% vs the XAU on Friday 9-22. The past fifteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.16% versus the XAU.

A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline may have begun on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/