............Early Weakness Today Was A Slam Dunk
After HUI/XAU put in slightly lower double tops yesterday with Thursday's Wave B cycle highs, combined with the fact that they fell significantly from the double tops and closed near the session lows, made early weakness a slam dunk, especially since NEM and the XAU had unfilled gaps at 42.75 and at 128.42 (which got filled early today). Then there was last week's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator at -4.46% vs the XAU and the fact that Wave C of the major downcycle since 9-6-06 for HUI/XAU (since 9-5-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) probably began last Thursday, and early weakness today was a slam dunk.
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 41.61 (so far) versus 41.75 last week. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 41ish (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 41, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks, but, I'll have to wait and see where it bottoms.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.
The past fifteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.67% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 41.61 (so far) versus 41.75 last week. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 41ish (see first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Right now it seems like NEM will bottom well below 41, which would be a very bearish sign for gold/silver stocks, but, I'll have to wait and see where it bottoms.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind.
The past fifteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.67% versus the XAU.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:05 AM
