............................What's Going On
The sharp rally after early weakness is partly due to the oversold condition that arose after HUI/NEM/XAU fell sharply from yesterday's early cycle highs. Also, XAU Implied Volatility portended a potentially sharp rally at some point today, rising +4.90% to 41.075 yesterday from 39.155 on Friday versus a -0.50% decline in the XAU yesterday, which was a very sharp +4.40% (3-6%) rise in fear.
Reliable lead indicator NEM probably put in a short term cycle high early today at 42.25, for the short term upcycle that began last Wednesday at 39.84. The short term upcycle has been very flat since early last Friday, when NEM hit 42.14. Then NEM hit 42.16 early yesterday and spiked to 42.25 early today, which is probably a short term cycle high. HUI/XAU probably hit short term cycle highs yesterday, appearing to lead NEM, BUT, I think what's happening is that reliable lead indicator NEM is leading, because it probably bottomed last Wednesday at 39.84, while HUI/XAU probably will fall well below the cycle lows that occurred on Wednesday 10-4, because they remain well above their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines, see http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. So, NEM is probably leading to the upside, though HUI/XAU are only in Wave A of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.95% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% versus the XAU yesterday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable lead indicator NEM probably put in a short term cycle high early today at 42.25, for the short term upcycle that began last Wednesday at 39.84. The short term upcycle has been very flat since early last Friday, when NEM hit 42.14. Then NEM hit 42.16 early yesterday and spiked to 42.25 early today, which is probably a short term cycle high. HUI/XAU probably hit short term cycle highs yesterday, appearing to lead NEM, BUT, I think what's happening is that reliable lead indicator NEM is leading, because it probably bottomed last Wednesday at 39.84, while HUI/XAU probably will fall well below the cycle lows that occurred on Wednesday 10-4, because they remain well above their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines, see http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. So, NEM is probably leading to the upside, though HUI/XAU are only in Wave A of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 39.84ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The past sixteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.95% versus the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% versus the XAU yesterday.
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:18 AM
