...............Very Important Major Averages Info
The growth stock oriented NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is doing the worst out of the three major averages. It began a Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle in March 2000 at 4800ish (COMPX was 5000+), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENDX&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c==. Click on the max link to see back to 2000 and before. NDX's Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002 ended in January of this year. So, NDX is in a Cyclical Bear Market as well as a Secular Bear Market now, and, is simply rallying to it's Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle trendline. NDX's intermediate term upcycle of recent months is probably peaking.
The S & P 500 (SPX), which has significant exposure to value stocks, but, probably not as much as the Dow 30, began a Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle on March 24, 2000 when a Secular Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high occurred at 1552.87. SPX's Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002 and it's intermediate term upcycle of recent months is probably peaking, based on the fact that the Cyclical Bull Market is rolling over, and, it appears to be in the final Elliot Wave 5.
The Dow 30, which probably has more exposure to value stocks than SPX, which probably partly explains why the Dow 30 was able to take out it's early 2000 cycle high, so, the Dow's Secular Bull Market since 1982 (?) and Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 are rolling over/flattening out, and, it's intermediate term upcycle of recent months is probably peaking.
In a nutshell concerning the major averages, based on cycle trendlines: get out! (or stay out/get short)
A very long term economic bust began in 2000, which is why the Fed Funds Rate fell to 1% and remained there for a while, and, why the Fed has had an easy money policy in recent years and fueled the mortgage/real estate, refi, and credit card boom, which has ended/peaked. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NDX SPX Dow
The S & P 500 (SPX), which has significant exposure to value stocks, but, probably not as much as the Dow 30, began a Secular Bear Market/very long term downcycle on March 24, 2000 when a Secular Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high occurred at 1552.87. SPX's Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002 and it's intermediate term upcycle of recent months is probably peaking, based on the fact that the Cyclical Bull Market is rolling over, and, it appears to be in the final Elliot Wave 5.
The Dow 30, which probably has more exposure to value stocks than SPX, which probably partly explains why the Dow 30 was able to take out it's early 2000 cycle high, so, the Dow's Secular Bull Market since 1982 (?) and Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 are rolling over/flattening out, and, it's intermediate term upcycle of recent months is probably peaking.
In a nutshell concerning the major averages, based on cycle trendlines: get out! (or stay out/get short)
A very long term economic bust began in 2000, which is why the Fed Funds Rate fell to 1% and remained there for a while, and, why the Fed has had an easy money policy in recent years and fueled the mortgage/real estate, refi, and credit card boom, which has ended/peaked. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NDX SPX Dow
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:58 AM
